WEEK 3 NFL RECAP AND SOME WEEK 4 BETTING NUGGETS

NFL WEEK 3 RECAP AND SOME WEEK 4 BETTING NUGGETS TO WATCH:

Ok folks lets first recap our last recap a little and first I said there were two (2-0) teams I wasn’t sold on yet, Pitt and Chicago. Both won, but I am still not sold on either even though both are still undefeated. Last week we noted NFL Scoring was at all time high average of 50 pts per game. Now it’s 51 pts per game with an insane 172 Passing TD’s in the first 3 weeks. Wow. Also Seattle pulled another one out as QB Russ Wilson is just off charts fantastic thru 3 contests, but the Defense still gets really no Pass Rush which has to be scaring the Seahawks going forward (with now possibly star Safety J. Adams out). The Titans are (3-0) and could be (0-3) although QB Tannehill had his third 300+ yard passing game. The Titans Defense has lots of holes but Tannehill is the real deal as he’s simply been MONEY since he’s become the starter. Last I will sadly say I was dead on right (hey I am a Redskins fan) on the fact QB D. Haskins is atrocious and just matter of time he stays the starter. Well he didn’t make me look bad as he was once again brutal with 3 costly INT’s and continues to struggle missing wide open receivers even at close range passing ball. Now facing an angry Ravens Defense off a Loss and this may be his final start with Skins if he plays very poorly again. He wasn’t HC Rivera’s choice in Draft and with J. Allen and Alex Smith now healthy, he’s on his final bullet. I see nothing so far in two seasons to think he’s going to get better.  Last week I stated 4 teams really needed a win badly: ATL, DALLAS, PHILLY and VIKINGS. All 4 lost. Not one is elite and I could see only one ending with a 8 win season…rest will NOT.-

 

Now let’s recap the Week 2 finals to get you up to some speed if you didn’t watch every single game.

Jax Minshew got sacked 4x, had 0 TD’s and 1 INT and was off target all night. He needs to step up Sunday vs. Bengals as the road is going to get super tough after and I would not be shocked Jax loses 10 straight if they add a third straight loss to Bengals. No star WR Chark hurt and WR Chris Conley dropped two passes and got flagged on Offensive Pass Int, and Minshew had a costly fumble that derailed Offense early on. The fact Miami’s best secondary player B. Jones missed game makes it worse and then to add gas on fire they lost LB Jacobs for season. Rookie Corner got an F- grade from me which is very rare. He looks severely over matched so far. I don’t like much at all about this Jaguars team as a whole. Miami got a very solid effort from 75 year old QB Fitzpatrick and only misfired on two passes. He led Miami to it’s first double digit win in 39 games. For now we shall not likely see Tua Tags at QB for Miami, which I am sure the higher ups are glad as he can keep getting healthy for the future.

The Rams gave us an almost gigantic comeback, but got foiled by my Most Improved Player, Bills QB J. Allen who still does make some mistakes, but this kid is still learning. He passed for 4 TD’s and I just love the wide out’s on Bills with newly added stud S. Diggs and Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis to add to speedster J. Brown and I really love the pass plays to RB Singletary out of the back field as a huge weapon. The Bills supposed top notch Defense allowed 478 total yards after allowing Miami 410 the week before. So the (3-0) record is very deceiving as Allen’s two back to back late heroics have changed a possible (1-2) into a (3-0).  The Bills finally have the talent all around to overcome what used to always end up in tough losses. But they are definitely not an elite (3-0) team just yet.

Next up we saw the Patriots bounce back off their heartbreaking loss in Week 2 on final play not scoring at 1 to get 25o yards total rushing and not fully reliant on QB Cam Newton (just 17-28-162). The Raiders looked sharp to start but a fumble and punt on drives 2 and 3 and a second half start of missing a FG and then fumbling it away for a Pats TD before a garbage TD made final score much closer than it really was. Neither team was good on 3rd down (Vegas 3-9 and Pats 3-11) but once again Pats HC Bill the Hoody rebounded his team off a loss. I will say the Pats are (2-1) but like Vegas, neither team screams ELITE to me at this point. I will give a pass to Vegas since they did play Monday night and then got that dreaded cross country/early time zone start (NFL is a Joke to keep allowing this brutal scheduling).

Now for my Redskins and it’s simply brutal QB D. Haskins. I watch and know my team better than any other and last week I said Haskins was toast as being legit in NFL. He went right out and got an F- grade for a dismal effort. He threw 3 picks and lost a fumble giving the team ZERO chance to win. He easily could’ve had two more picks as he throws into super tight coverage often and he continues to be terrible passing while scrambling and he again threw a few passes 8 yards short and the passes were only 15 yard passes. He is never going to last. Never. He was also sacked 3x as he holds ball too long often. It was a very rare day for the Redskins Offense to gain over 100 yards but they did…only just 22 carries.

Yes the Browns won but it was thanks to so much early Xmas gifting from Haskins. They ran ball well (best two headed RB tandem in NFL) with 153 yards rushing, but Mayfield was pedestrian and 156 passing yards, and only 4 catches by Odell Beckham (now targeted only 10x in 3 games) keeps proving this Passing Offense is NOT Elite. Mayfield threw no picks so that’s a sign of some positives. For the Redskins they lost top Pick DE Chase Young early to a groin injury and lost stud DE Ioannidis also was hurt and is not out for season…a crushing blow to a team with 13 sacks in 3 weeks. Myles Garrett had his best game with 2 sacks and Skins 2nd year DE M. Sweat (2 1/2 tackles for loss and 1 sack) was a bright spot. Sweat is now most Improved player on team. The Redskins really have NO run game and won’t wear any opposing Defense down ahead making for a long season ahead and really soon the more losses the better as they can trade off a few nice Chips (DE Ryan Kerrigan) to add some draft picks for next years Draft.

One team who needed a win badly was the Texans but once again they couldn’t finish a game. QB Watson was so-so but folks they had the ball only 42 total plays in the entire game. The Steelers won again but the Offense is not elite. Big Ben isn’t turning ball over and RB Conner looked his best all season (18 rushes – 109 rush yards). Texans JJ Watt once again looked a shell of his once dominating self (0 sacks and 4 tackles) and he now has just 2 sacks in 3 games in a season the Offense needs his elite self dominating games. The Texans are poorly coached and the loss of the worst trade ever of it’s best WR Hopkins may rear it’s ugly head in most games. The schedule gets easier ahead for Houston but I just don’t see this Offense being enough to carry the team as the Defense is NOT ELITE. Texans Off Line is brutal bad and Watson now sacked 13x…..soon he will be in a morgue at this rate. Watson also with an INT in each game as he is now trying too hard and simply lacks top end receiving talent. Nothing at all about this team will have me looking to “BET ON” them anytime soon.

The Titans simply win. Ryan Tannehill simply wins as the starting QB. . He’s passed it 104x and sacked just 3x this season although he did get picked and fumbled it twice but the Titans recovered both. The Titans have won all 3 games b a FG or less (wins by 2, 3 and 1). Winning teams win close games, but Titans Defense has allowed 480 and 464 total yards past two weeks and allowed the Vikings to gain 226 rushing yards (6.8 yards per carry) and now have allowed numerous large plays (25, 31, 45 and 71 yard pass plays and two 39 yard rushes and a 25 yard rush)…so they are definitely a work in progress and only so far not exposed fully due to the 3-0 record thus far.

The Vikings are (0-3) and look the Offense and the Defense are both not good. QB Kirk “Never won a big game – ok he won 1” Cousins has been simply putrid (6 INT’s so far) and sacked 7x. He’s completed just 16, 11 and 19 passes in the first 3 games. His top Wide out with stuf Stefon Diggs now in Buffalo is Adam Theilen, but he’s got only 12 catches and only one catch over 20 yards. The past two games he has 60 yards total receiving. Cousins is one of my 5 most Over rated Players all time and this year he looks lost and more scared then I’ve ever seen him in the pocket. RB Dalvin Cook finally broke 63 rush yards with a huge 22 carry/181 yard day vs. Tenny and young wide out J. Jefferson broke out with 7 catches and 175 rec yards, but this Offense has scored 75 points while allowing 102 points and half the Vikings points have come when way behind and vs. Prevent type Defenses. The Vikings Defense was without 4 starters and so if Cousins doesn’t get much better very soon, this season will be a long one for the Purple Gang. With the winless Texans on deck and then another road game following week at Seattle and the Packers again at Lambeau in 4 weeks, this season could be over quickly for Cousins and Company. The Secondary is one of worst in NFL and allowing 31, 28 and 43 points in first 3 games likely won’t get much better anytime soon. I wouldn’t bet this team with your money at this point.

This is the game that really cost me as Atlanta imploded (AGAIN) and blew 16 point lead in a game they started without stud WR Julio Jones and then lost #3 wide out R. Gage to a concussion early on. Horrible Play calling in second half kept giving the Bears the ball back and although Nick Foles did the big comeback in relief of a struggling Mitch T…he wasn’t really throwing dimes…guys were wide open as Falcons Defense just got gassed. The Falcons avg. 30 pts a game and have ZERO wins to show for it (this is hard to do). The Falcons only ran 44 plays and that bad play calling got the undermanned Defense exhausted. That’s all on a bad HC and bad playcaller. Falcons RB Todd Gurley looked really good in a limited role of only 14 carries – 80 yards rushing (5.7 YPRush) so if the Falcons get Jones and Gage back…the Offense looks to score 30 on average most weeks. The Bears are (3-0) but I am not close to sold on them still. They could be (0-3). Now though the negativity they faced last year is gone and that folks is how you go from possible 0-3 to 3-0 as you truly believe you can keep coming back. They didn’t think like that last year. Bears now have 2 wins on Road in tough stadiums but now with no fans the home field that likely doesn’t allow those comebacks has made them undefeated and now playing with top end confidence. I am very interested to see how an almost always “streaky” Nick Foles does against a really good Colts Defense this Sunday.

The Colts rebounded nicely after a bad week 1 loss with 2 straight wins and the funny part is they learned it’s best to not let Philip Rivers throw it 45x a game. Last week he goes (17-21-217) and wasn’t sacked or picked off. The week before he was (19-25-214)…..again less passes and although one Rivers Interception…and only 203 pass yards …the end result is back to back wins. I am not sold on the Offense though as once stud WR T.Y. Hilton just isn’t a star/threat anymore. He has 3, 3, and 4 catches so far. He hasn’t gotten a 100+ yard game in 13 straight games and his longest catch these past 2 seasons is only 35 yards. I do love the Colts Defense and they may be best in NFL. Often stats lie and in Colts points allowed the stats LIE. This season the D allowed a 4 play TD off a turnover, 3 play TD off a turnover, 4 play FG off a turnover a garbage TD when up 28-3 to Vikings late and one 9 play 75 yard drive for a TD. You won’t be driving length of field often and the points allowed so far is really way off reality. Rivers has only 1 TD pass all year and he and Hilton need to get into a solid bond soon as the other wide outs are nothing to write home about. I am very pleased with TE Mo Alie-Cox though as he is turning into a star and he’s literally saving the Offense that has no serious weapon to pass it to.

The Chargers lost a second straight close game as rookie QB J. Herbert has been very good. He makes mistakes, but all rookies do. This Bolts play calling makes no sense to me though as they don’t run it enough and asking a young kid in start 2 to pass almost 50x is just ludicrous. Losing to KC is one thing, but losing to Carolina at Home is just PLAIN BAD. The Bolts Defense is really solid and they get a good pass rush don’t allow many big plays. Carolina signed Teddy Bridgewater, no idea why really….but he is a solid game manager and he hits on passes at a solid rate even behind a very average OL.  The Panthers Defense finally got 2 sacks after 2 week of donut time….but it still will cost them vs. any good QB who can scramble or can read Defenses well. I am very interested to see how they fare vs. Cards Kyler Murray and his running. Murray isn’t great passing under duress but I doubt the Panthers get much pressure on him at all on Sunday. Losing to Carolina without stud C-Mac though to me should never happen. I hear local Vegas radio average Joes talk how Bolts HC Lynn is a great HC …folks he is brutal bad. They are always in a close game and more times than not the end result is a Loss. He has no clue on either side of ball. It’s likely they will be (1-4) after these next 2 games.

Can you hear the whispers now about Tom Brady being washed up after 2 straight wins? Brady finally got Gronk back into the action with 6 catches and the TE’s had almost 100 total yards. This Bucs team has two stud wide outs in Evans and Godwin. Somehow though Evans caught 2 passes for 2 yards. WTF? Many call Bucs HC/playcaller a genius type calling plays….he is NOT. He doesn’t run ball enough and I have no idea why….Ronald Jones and L. Fournette should combine for 33 rushes per game. Brady got little pressure vs. Denver, but half the D was out…so take last weeks success with a grain of salt. This Offense is still very erratic and not close to hitting on all cylinders just yet. Now stud WR Godwin is hurt again meaning Mike Evans must step up for a big game on Sunday. But this may be the breakout week for the Bucs Offense as LAC is going to be short at least 4 starters. I don’t at all like the OL injuries now for Chargers and I feel bad for the Rook Herbert as he does show a ton of promise and poise. I’d look for Evans to have a monster game on Sunday and for the Bucs to finally run it more tiring out the healthy D starters in second half. This may be the best MIX we’ve seen from Bucs Offense all year vs. depleted Bolts D.

Green Bay is 3-0 and Aaron Rodgers is fired up likes he 25 again. The Saints lose another game without Michael Thomas suiting up. Guess what folks that makes ZERO wins for QB Brees without Thomas in lineup….that shows you how IMPORTANT he is to the Offense. The Pack Offense is clicking on all cylinders. 43, 42 and 37 points in 3 games. But now the key injuries are mounting to a break point possibly as young stud WR Luzard is now out and #1 WR D. Adams is already been out…meaning the Pack may need to go more RUN HEAVY this week. I have to say I am still shocked to rewatch game tapes and see how fantastic a new OL each week has fared….allowing Rodgers to be sacked only 2x all season. Rodgers must be salivating though to face a now almost fully depleted Falcons Secondary….you almost feel for HC Quinn on the hottest seat possible. GB also lost stud LB C. Kirksey who has wowed me on tape thru 3 games.  Saints lost OL A. Peat as it’s crazy how many key players have gotten hurt this year across league. Look Brees is over 40 now and the dinks and dunks passing attack makes me wonder …. I think this week though HC Payton opens it up vs. an below average Lions Defense. With Thomas out it’s up to E. Sanders to up his game. I also don’t grasp why RB Kamara isn’t running ball 23x at least….this kid is a beast and can break one on any carry….12 carries, 13 carries and last week an absurd 6 carries?  I hear all time how this Coach is great or this play caller is a genius….it’s such a joke I vomit 10x a weekend. Nobody wants to run the ball anymore and thats how you win games. It’s all tricks and gadgets….this week they face a team that lost 11 of it’s last 12 games and a team (Lions) just atrocious vs. Run…..if Payton doesn’t rush it 30x this week he’s now just a Joke to me. I must say the Lions Offense is really good when WR Kenny Golladay plays and it’s not shock they broke thru with a win when Golladay finally suited up (6c-57-1 TD) and Stafford hit 6 different receivers for a gain of 18 yards or more. I don’t know what happened to once stud young gun RB K. Johnson though as they now rely on 50 year old A. Peterson to carry almost the full rushing load. I would expect both Offenses to have ADV of the opposing Defenses this week.

The Cards train that was rolling full steam crashed with terrible loss to the Lions as QB Murray threw 3 Int’s and somehow WR Larry Fitzgerald caught only 1 pass for 0 yards. It’s hard to fathom where the Cards Offense would be without trading for stud WR D. Hopkins (10C, 8C, 14C) = (32 catches on just 35 targets). Problem is he never goes deep. He has only 1 TD so far. I am not high on AZ HC Kingsbury play calling as he’s always trying to be tricky and it’s cost him a handful of times so far this year. This Cards Offense has 3 stud WR’s (Andy Isabella is a complete stud and a hidden gem) and they should be going deep a ton more then they have so far. Look the Panthers get really no Pass rush so if you aren’t calling more deep passes you just don’t have a clue as a Playcaller. It’s time to open this Offense up and should happen this week. The Cards D though is another Mash unit with 3 Safeties out, incl a total superstar in Budda Baker. Teddy B should be able to make some big pass plays vs. this depleted Red Bunch.

Now let’s look at Dallas, who this time was the lead blower. Yes Dak Prescott piles up good stat yards…but 57 passes is just moronic. All I hear is “PAY HIM A ZILLION DOLLARS”! Why? He simply doesn’t WIN. He turns it over 3x again..and somehow the loaded “Big 3” wideouts (Gallup, Cooper and Lamb) have a whopping 1 TD all season. Zeke Elliot is paid the zillion bucks and so far no 100 yard rushing games. His longest run all season is a joke 14 yards. The Dallas Defense is simply TERRIBLE. Lucky for them they signed Aldon Smith as he’s been fantastic (4 sacks and 12 tackles on season) but after him this Defense gets no rush….makes very few stops. The LB unit is toast and the Secondary gives up tons of gigantic plays. It’s time for the Big 3 to start scoring TD’s and the way to make that happen is get Elliot more rushes early…then when box is loaded to slow him down those 3 will make big plays. It WILL HAPPEN. But Prescott can’t keep being a TURNOVER MACHINE. He’s really just another Kirk Cousins….a stat padder who NEVER WINS.

Here’s my Seattle thoughts. Offense is off charts….I will say AGAIN…most Under rated WR in NFL is Tyler Lockett. Problem for Hawks is secondary is TOAST. They allow so many big plays and now are allowing a whopping 431 yards per game. Now young stud LB (first round pick) J. Brooks is out along with it’s best Defensive Player Jamal Adams. Seattle gets little pass rush….and that was with Adams and Brooks and now face Miami Off Line I feel is under rated (allowed 5 sacks so far in 3 games) and the old goat Fins QB Fitzpatrick could have a good game vs. depleted Hawks bunch. Seattle is 3-0 thanks to monster start by QB Wilson…but they easily could’ve lost last 2 games. Now they go cross country…to play in early EST zone start…in a really bad spot vs. a hungry young team off a nice big win and extra days off. It’s asking a lot for Wilson to need 35+ each week to win. He likely will need that here with the Defense so banged up.

Lastly Pat Mahomes outdid the young gun Lamar Jackson AGAIN. Let’s face it KC has too many weapons on Offense and Mahomes rarely makes any mistakes. Baltimore showed they play poorly when behind. They still are loaded but they are still a mile from KC elite status. The Ravens should feast on the Redskins missing two studs on DL and playing maybe worst QB (Haskins) in NFL so they will play like they do when ahead….loose and easy and should recover fast off the poor showing Monday Night. I want to add that KC Sammy Watkins looks like his really great early career and he’s making some huge catches (many tough ones) and has 12 catches for first downs….folks he’s the #3 option or even #4 option……if he stays healthy the Chiefs likely lose only once all season. Make special note the Chiefs D was on field only 49 plays so they are well rested facing the Hoodies this week.

 

GARY’S NEW BOTTOM 5

5). CAROLINA/DENVER – TIE

4). JAX JAGS

3). WASHINGTON

2). NY GIANTS

1). NY JETS (ARE ON THE CLOCK)

 

Have a great WINNING weekend in Week 4 ahead.

Gary Greene