CHICAGO BEARS (-5 1/2) at the Washington Redskins (TOTAL 41) – WEEK 3 – SEPT. 23, 2019

We had 8 teams come into Week 3 still winless after two games and Lucky for late FG last week by Bears they aren’t a group of Nine. The reason is surely not due to the Defense as that Unit has again been fantastic. It’s the Bears Offense that seems totally out of sync, and worst of all to the point even the HC (and Playcaller) Nagy looking very hesitant to have QB Trubisky throw anything deep. He’s had a few shots at wide open deep shots and he’s missed them all badly. Amazingly Trubisky has only thrown 16 total passes so far for 10+ yards. You have to make a ton of long sustained drives if you are just dinking and dunking all your passes on Offense. Trubisky is dead last at only (4.8) yards per pass attempt, he’s dead last in QB passer rating (65.0) and he’s 27th in Passer completion (58.3%).  The Bears Offense has only gained 5+ yards on 18 of it’s 51 First Down plays so far. When you have a QB who isn’t passing it well, you are in big trouble to put many points up on board after so many bad first downs.

It’s very clear Bears HC is now trying desperately not to have Trubisky lose the game, figuring he has one of the 3 Best Defenses in the NFL. The Bears Defense for the most part as been even better then last year. They are 2nd in Yards per play allowed (4 ypp), 3rd in Scoring Defense (12.0 points allowed average), and 3rd on 3rd down conversions by Opposing Offenses (19.29%). They already have 7 Sacks in just two games. Now they face the Redskins Offensive Line without it’s best player LT Trent Williams (sitting out like a crybaby) and so you have to believe that Mack and Company will be throwing the kitchen sink at the Skins OL tonight.

The Skins came into this season with a Defense many felt would be solid Top 10 material. So far they have been the sole reason for both losses, tiring out in the second halves and allowing a combined 569 Total Yards to the Eagles and Cowboys. They have gotten burned often on gigantic big bomb type passes more than twice (2 went for TD’s of over 50 yards). The Redskins simply can’t get off the field on third downs and by second half it’s clear they have gotten very tired. Having the 2nd worst Pass Defense in the NFL surely won’t end up with lots of “W’s” in the WIN column. What makes football so great is situations like tonight where you have one teams Offense (Bears) unable to make third downs to keep drives alive and the opponent (Redskins) unable to make a third down stop. Something will have to give here and the better team in this stat tonight likely wins.

The Redskins QB controversy with Case Keenum given job has not turned into a reason why Skins are (0-2). Keenum, when he’s had time, has thrown a ton of very nice passes and he’s now got a speedy WR weapon in Rookie McLaurin who is torching opposing Defenses in his first two Pro games. The Redskins simply can NOT run the ball. The Offensive Line has had no push forward and the poor RB’s are getting hit either right at line of scrimmage or in the backfield. It surely won’t get any better tonight vs. a solid Bears Defense up front. The biggest loss for the Redskins is not having it’s leader and Pro Bowl LT Williams suiting up, but there is a close second loss as well with do it all super Tight End Reed being out again (concussion). This Skins Offense is completely different, and not for the better, without him in there.

Let’s last look at past success on MNF. The Bears are (5-1) in their last 6 Monday Night appearances. The Redskins are (0-6) their last 6 MNF appearances. The Redskins are money burners on MNF over the years going just (7-21) ATS. The Redskins though are a perfect (5-0) ATS vs. the Bears the last 5x these two teams faced off.

Last very key STAT: The last 7 overall Chicago Bears games have ended in this total points: 21, 41, 23, 34, 31, 19, and 30 points total amount points scored in the games. All but the one time there were 41 points scored, the games have easily gone UNDER the posted betting Total.

FINAL NUGGET: The Redskins lose and go (0-3) and you can almost put a fork in their Playoff chances. It was stunning to see how scared Bears HC Nagy was not calling any plays for QB Trubisky in last week’s game. Nagy was horrible with play calls in week 1 loss to Packers, running it only 15x and passing it 50x. No way he’s doing that tonight, and you can expect to see more Trubisky running the ball too. Two teams likely to play it very conservatively in hopes to just sneak a win out in this one and simply avoid the (0-3) start.


I am stunned to see Bears HC Nagy get so scared off by Trubisky passing ball more then 7 yards down field this early in the season. It’s clear he got spooked fast losing the Opener at Home and then scared badly on road vs. Broncos pretty solid Defense. But geez my Grandmother could be the Opposing teams D.C. and could see how scared Nagy was with his vanilla play calling. Look folks I am a big Redskins fan. If they play “NOT TO LOSE” vs. this totally out of sync Redskins Defense, and not open the full playbook again, they may leave DC with an (1-2) record. I looked back to a few tapes of Bears good wins last year. One thing I saw over and over was Trubisky running the ball. Once he did that, the passing lanes got bigger. The Bears need a 50-50 Mix on Pass/Run calls, or they won’t be successful long term. They need to either take a look at the Bills and QB Allen or Ravens Jackson getting Run Calls made often for them, especially to the far sidelines to get them into more manageable second downs. Trubisky is who we thought he was? He’s a solid ATHLETE playing the QB spot. Let the kid run the ball, he’s big and can take the hits.

We bounced back with a SWEEP CITY (3-0) with our “Gameday” NFL picks this weekend, winning all 3 pretty easily. The Jags/Titans “UNDER” was really dead nuts handicap, the Saints beat a Seahawks team we still don’t see as anything but .500, and when you don’t succeed with a certain handicapping angle you simply love, come right back with it. I lost the AZ Cards “OVER” against the Ravens, but it was a solid handicap, and a tough luck outcome. The yards were gained and the Cards shorthanded Defense (really secondary) got lit up by the Ravens, it was the Cards play calling that cost me that ATS ticket cash. This week, until late in game, the Cards play calling was a lot better, and yes folks, the Cards Defense, and really the depleted Secondary without it’s top two starters, simply could not cover, got tired again, and wore out completely late. The College Football week ended with (2-2) overall, on one of the worst cards to choose from I’ve ever seen. I usually try for at least 5 games on the big CFB cards, but I saw no 5th game even remotely close to making the final cut. I won with Oregon, and for anybody who didn’t watch the game, it was a complete dominating Ducks win. Thankfully a missed easy FG late (can any CFB kid make a FG anymore?), didn’t cost me a backdoor ATS Stanford cover, but the Oregon D stood up twice and didn’t allow the Cardinal to even cross the 50. Then came another tough “TOTAL” loss as we failed to cash Texas/Oklahoma State “OVER 72 1/2” by only a TD. We had many a chance to get that Over cashed, it simply didn’t happen. Both QB’s moved the ball well, ran like crazed dogs for lots big plays, and when both Offenses nearly get 500 Total yards each (that makings of my vintage 100/1000 CLUB) and the total stays under, you eat it without getting too upset. Right side handicap, tough luck outcome. Last we needed a late game Total to get is a (2-2) day and I felt if we could get that it was a helluva day with the card so bad overall. Well my UCLA Bruins Defense was who I thought they were. LOL  And I’ve loved Wash State QB Gordon and his insane amount of stud RB’s and WR’s (deepest I feel in CFB) didn’t disappoint. I will admit I want UCLA to be good again. They are very young team with only 7 seniors. They have lots of growing pains still to go ahead. But 50 points in the second half? The game flew Over the total to even my day without any real hurt and left me happy and sad at same time. First Happy my boyz came back down 32 (are you F’n kidding me….32 points down and win??) ….but sad I didn’t need all those extra points….couldn’t some be saved for future Over the Total picks.

Our “Gameday Picks Club” is now a solid (26-12-1) overall in CFB and NFL Combined. We had no “Best Bets” in either this week, staying at (3-1), with NFL (0-1) and CFB (3-0). I’ve always been a big “TOTALS” Bettor/Handicapper and our Totals are in solid form right away, with no really bad (just off handicaps) in that Dept. yet, now (11-3) overall, with CFB Totals (5-2) and NFL (6-1). My first look for a second week at the CFB Opening lines has me not ecstatic at even one side. I do like two Totals a lot on CFB side, with both possibly in the Gary 100/1000 Club (100 points combined and 1000 total yards combined). Lots of tape to watch these next two days as having the Bama’s, Ohio States and Clemson’s of the world beat the Sisters of the Poor isn’t really a help for down the road Handicapping. I will say I’ve learned fast new HC Day at Ohio State has no problem running up the score. He’s clearly out to make a name for himself, and if it’s a close call by Committee later in the year to get the Final 4 picked, he’s not leaving them saying “oh the Buckeyes only beat Sister of Poor by 35. Nope. He likes big gigantic blowouts. Some old school great HC’s would never run up the score late, but folks this is a different world we now live in as HC’s under too much pressure with a group of morons picking that elite Final 4.

Have a great new week ahead and please Dear God, let the Redskins win a game. Oh and good bye to Royals Manager Ned Yost. Thanks for the World Series win my own Mother could’ve gotten with the bullpen you had closing games at greatest rate all time. Good riddance as you were the worst Manager of all time, clueless when you had to actually manage the game, and not simply have the same exact solid lineup 1-8 daily and the best 7-8-9 Bullpen that simply never had a bad game. New KC Owners and a new Manager, for that God I say “THANK YOU SOOOO MUCH”!

God Bless and enjoy all the Stats we put up free of charge. If you do well using them, (they take two long days to produce each week), maybe send a donation to the Las Vegas group Helping our Homeless Youth.  NEVADA PARTNERSHIP FOR HOMELESS YOUTH.  Nothing other than being a sick kid is worse then a kid being Homeless. Vegas has thousands and thousands of these kids. Help them out. You will be forever Blessed.

Gary Greene