VEGAS ODDS:  NAVY (-26)  vs. U CONN   ~    TOTAL: (53 1/2)

Well tonight is surely not one of those games you’d expect to be close, but last night we saw both very big Favorites not cover, with one, App State, lose straight up. Maybe it’s Halloween weekend and it’s going to be spooky finishes?  UConn would like to hop the Halloween Train and pull off another big Upset. I doubt we see it, and I’d be more shocked if game is even close, although I can’t lay almost 4 TD’s when Navy has a huge game on deck next week vs. Notre Dame.

Navy has been sensational this year, and QB Perry to me may be the most improved player in all of CFB. He seems to know the Offense now really well, and rarely makes a misread. He is so fast too and he is fearless. He will be a nightmare all night for UConn’s horrific Defense (ranked #110). It’s hard for good Defenses to slow down the Option as it’s not what you see often and if your smaller and can’t tackle well, like UConn now, it’s going to be a very tough task to even slow down Navy’s (#38) Offense, that rushes for 351 yards per game. They simply wear you out as they grind on you for 4 quarters. U Conn allows just under 200 yards rushing per game, and that is against teams that really pass a lot too. Last week vs. a terrible U Mass team, the Huskies allowed 200 yards rushing and (5.3) yards per carry. Navy could double those stats tonight.

Navy has one loss. To a very good Memphis team on the road. The final score (35-23) is very misleading though. Navy dominated the game. The Time of Possession was Navy 39 minutes and Memphis only 21 minutes. Navy ran 79 plays to Memphis 43 plays. You’d say how the heck did Navy lose? Well they allowed a 99 yard kick off return, a 75 yard TD run, and a costly turnover inside 5 and a costly second turnover too. They are really as close to an undefeated team as you can get, with a strong Offense not many can stop and now a Defense that is playing lights out under a new Defensive Coordinator who has really got the kids in great spots it seems most of the game. UConn is simply one of the worst teams in CFB. A team for no reason, no line whatsoever, to bet ON. They have two wins, one over Wagner and one over maybe the worst team in the country, UMass.

Navy has scored 41, 35, 45, 34, 42 and 45 in their wins, with the 23 a rare not that high scoring game in the too many mistakes loss to Memphis.  Navy Defense has allowed 3, 7, 10, 17, 25 and 38 in their wins. U Conn has losses by 26, 33, 35 and 42. They lost by 8 to a bad Illinois team and 7 to a Houston team missing lots of key pieces.

One key note here is this game is on a short week and last week UConn Defense was on field 78 plays. They could get worn out quickly if they can’t slow Navy’s Option and may need to force at least 2 turnovers to stay competitive tonight. UConn QB Jack Zergotis has 4 TD passes and 6 interceptions. His longest pass so far in Conference play is 27 yards. This Huskies team simply has very few playmakers or studs and I am not sure they get a huge crowd tonight either, although Navy could possibly bring a nice group as it’s not a far ride.

I won’t be in action once again tonight, but it would be Navy or pass if I was. Navy, and UAB, are the two teams I am most impressed with this season. I am not a fan of Navy HC Niumatalolo as he is a terrible “in game” coach. But this game tonight across board is a total Mismatch.

Enjoy the game tonight and have a great weekend. I am excited to finally have a “Best Bet” (actually 2 so far) in CFB as we haven’t had won in a few weeks. The CFB card this week is loaded and so we hope to have another Winning weekend ahead.

May all your wagers be WINNING ones and have a fun weekend ahead.

God Bless,

Gary Greene