IRON BOWL PREVIEW: AUBURN @ ALABAMA (SAT. NOV. 28th, 2020)
AUBURN @ ALABAMA PREVIEW – IRON BOWL
DATE: SAT. NOV. 28, 2020
VEGAS ODDS: ALABAMA (-24 1/2) over Auburn ~ TOTAL: (62 1/2)
LAST YEARS FINAL SCORE: Auburn won 48-45. Auburn has shockingly won 2 of the last 3 meetings.
OFFENSE RANKINGS: ALABAMA (#6 – 182 RUSH/366 PASS) ~ AUBURN (#60 – 170 RUSH/232 PASS)
DEFENSE RANKINGS: ALABAMA (#34 – 119 RUSH allowed/240 PASS allowed) ~ AUBURN (#60 – 165 RUSH allowed/237 PASS allowed)
RED ZONE OFFENSES: ALABAMA (31 TD’s – 6 FG’s – 40 Trips) ~ AUBURN (17 TD’s – 7 FG’s – 29 Trips)
RED ZONE DEFENSE: ALABAMA (10 TD’s – 7 FG’s – 22 Trips) ~ AUBURN (16 TD’s – 3 FG’s – 25 Trips)
SPECIAL NOTES: Last year was only game decided by 11 points or less in last 5 meetings with Auburn winning by just 2 points. Last year Alabama dominated the game but QB Mac Jones, filling in for injured QB Tua Taglovailoa, threw 2 costly Pick-6 Interceptions for Touchdowns to aide the Auburn win. Bama held a 36-24 mins Time of Possession edge in the loss.
Last week we won with Auburn (-10 1/2) over Tennessee and they won thanks for a strong second half. But they did give up 464 Total Yards to a weak Vols Offense. Auburn QB Bo Nix has greatly improved his Passing game after a slow start to the season where he passed it under 50% in 3 of his first 4 games. He has thrown it for over 70% completions the last 3 games though. The Tigers have played an “UNDER” in 6 of it’s 7 games this season and will need a low scoring game here to have any chance of pulling a gigantic Upset victory. I’ve not seen a team be almost exactly same on Offense and Defense but Auburn averages 402 total yards and allows 402 total yards and they are ranked 60th on both Offense and Defense this season. In their 2 losses they only scored 1 FG in the second half of each loss. Auburn has won the turnover battle 5x this season = all WINS. They lost it 2x = both losses.
Last week Alabama beat Kentucky 63-3. To me this is the best Offense in the country as they possess the best QB/Top RB/Top WR’s Combo in the nation and they have only turned it over 7x all season. They lost the turnover battle only once and that was the one close game they’ve played. They have scored 38, 52, 63, 41, 48, 41, and 63 points so it’s not likely they will be stopped by a very average at best Auburn Defense this week either. The Bama Defense started a bit slow this season, allowing 19, 24, 48 (Ole Miss), 24 and 17 before being nearly flawless the past 2 weeks allowing 0 and 3 points. They have allowed only 1 TD and 1 FG their past 10 quarters. Bama wins by an average of 30 points per game. Bama QB Jones is a Heisman candidate and last year vs. a better Auburn Defense he threw for 355 passing yards and 4 TD’s. He’s only thrown 3 Int’s this season and he’s hit 77% of his passes with an incredible 12 yards per pass average. His wideouts are the best in CFB and WR Devonta Smith is to me the best WR in the nation (903 pass yards/10 TD’s) and nobody on Auburn’s D can cover him. The Bama OL is as good as it gets allowing Jones to be sacked just 7x all season. Last year Bama was led in rush attack by Najee Harris (146 rushing yards) and 4 catches for 26 yards. This year he is averaging 6 yards per carry and he makes it tough on opposing Defenses to use the extra guys to help defend the loaded wideout corps.
GARY’S FINAL TAKE:
Auburn hasn’t won at Tuscaloosa since 2010 and unless they win the turnover battle in a huge way in this one, that streak will add another year to it. When you add in the fact that last year’s gigantic Upset over Bama caused the Tide to miss out on the College Football Playoff and you can be assured this Alabama team will be as focused as they’ve been all season. Auburn QB Nix has played much better of late, but I don’t see his average Offensive Line (he’s been sacked 14x this season) slowing down this solid Bama Defensive Pass Rush. Last year Bama did everything right but win. Jones throwing 2 Pick-6’s won’t happen this time around and the Tide will coast to a very easy 3 TD or so victory.
Enjoy this game and have a Happy Turkey week and may all your Wagers be WINNING ones! We fully expect another huge CFB week overall (4-1 last week) and we also are excited to have the 2020-21 College Basketball Season starting up on Wednesday. CBB is our favorite sport of all and anyone who purchases our CBB “Earlybird Special” before the end of this week, you will get all the rest of the Gameday Picks Club Football Season, ABSOLUTELY FREE. Call me at (1-800-587-BLUE) to get all the details. We are (65-37-3) this Football season and (34-19-3 in College FB) and (31-18 in NFL) and a fantastic (7-1 in 2 Unit-Best Bets). We finished up 57 Units in CBB last season and if Covid cooperates this Hoops season I fully expect to at least match that Units won again.