GARY’S NFL WEEK 1 RECAP WITH SOME NUGGETS TOO!
GARY’S WEEK 1 NFL RECAP:
Well folks if anything shocked you in Week 1 as a bettor, I suggest you QUIT BETTING right now. In a year of no Preseason games and so many question marks across the league nothing that happened should have made you shake your head. In fact, Penalties on Offensive Linemen was way down (78%) from last year as that is by far the hardest position to get into season form and so the Refs (more likely the Leagues new rules) made for a less sloppy start to the new season for most Offenses.
Well 5 new HC’s to open 2020 and 4 of the 5 found the LOSS column. Raise your hand if you predicted the one winning new HC to be Redskins Ron Rivera? Being a Redskins fan I actually thought it was a good time to face off one of the supposed NFC East top contenders and it turned out to be just that. In fact I thought Week 1 might provide for a few big UPSETS. I only picked one Side, the AZ Cardinals, which I felt was the best possible Upset to happen. The Niners not only had some key injuries at the WR spot, but the team was living in an area where Fires were again causing severe stress to their lives off the field. The Niners pass rush simply ran out of gas late in the third quarter and the Cards pulled the Upset. Some big name Vet QB’s (Rivers, Wentz, Brady) had tough Openers. With Brady and Rivers on new teams and no real full summer to practice with their new mates, the outcomes are not stunning. Wentz simply was the worst QB of the weekend and sadly it’s becoming clear he may not be the guy to lead this team to a Title. He threw two terrible INT’s and missed 3 wide open receivers deep and too often held ball way too long. Now he was short handed two studs on OL to start, then more in game injuries had a fourth best Tackle taking numerous snaps but when you finish with a 14.2 QBR, you are flirting with Colin Kapshit numbers and that simply can’t happen on a good team.
Some things just never change. One is Lions HC Matt Patricia is in over his head. Last year his team lost 7 fourth quarter leads. He quickly started a new trend of blowing a 4th qtr lead allowing 3 Bears TD’s in the 4th to give another win away. If they didn’t have the names on back of jerseys I may have thought Jameis Winston was still the Bucs QB, with the terrible INT’s and of course another dreaded Pick-6. Really nothing went as planned for the Bucs Offense as Gronk ran 20 routes and caught a whopping TWO passed for 11 yards. Stud WR Mike Evans caught 1 pass. So much for the Bucs Offense dominating in week 1. Colts QB Rivers threw two costly Picks (led to 10 points) and the broken record of throwing picks continued albeit in a different uniform. Of course Kirk “Never wins the big games” Cousins final stats looked decent, but of course most came in 4th quarter when way behind.
Hats off to a few players who did some amazing feats. GB’s J. Alexander became the third player ever to record a sack, interception and record a safety in the same game. Jags QB G. Minshew went (19-20) and Atlanta had 3 Receivers have 100+ yard days. You won’t often see a team have a 19 play drive and come away with no points, but the Giants somehow pulled that shake your head drive in opening loss to the Steelers.
LEE CORSO “NOT SO FAST” AWARD:
- WASHINGTON REDSKINS – Yes they did win, and yes the Defense was really good, with the front 7 getting 8 Sacks and causing disruption the entire game. But the Offense was really bad. QB Haskins was the 3rd worst QB of the entire Week 1 card. He didn’t look like any improvement was done from last year and without a elite #2 WR and a Run game that looks average it will be up to the Defense to keep the Club in striking distance over the course of the season.
2. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS – Yes they won but wow the Offense/QB Brees looked very average with a shocking ‘dink and dunk” pass attack to open the season. Now #1 WR Michael Thomas is OUT so you have to wonder what the game plan will be this week vs. Vegas.
3. ATLANTA FALCONS – They lost badly to the Seahawks, but QB Ryan and the Offense gained 506 total yards. Three wideouts had 100+ yard games. The third quarter did the Falcons in with a Fumble on first drive of 3rd quarter and then a 7 play drive that ended on a 4th down conversion miss. Seattle had two TD drives in the 3rd to seal the win. The Falcons Defense had no answer for Russell Wilson and the shocking first time ever fast paced Offense using an “Aggressive” style I surely didn’t expect. Wilson was the teams high rusher for the day with 29 yards so Seattle will need to get better in the Run game as Wilson won’t always be near perfect.
4. LA RAMS – They had a really nice win over Dallas, but QB Goff had no TD passes and that makes 4x in his last 9 games. I still am just not sold on Goff as an Elite QB (even though he is paid to be one).
5. NY GIANTS R.B. SAQUON BARKLEY – (15 RUSHES – 6 TOTAL YARDS). This is not indicative of any decline by Barkley. Pitt’s Defense just overloaded the box and were not allowing him to beat them. His longest run was 7 yards. I would bet the house that never repeats the rest of the season. Barkley is a Stud and will be a giant headache in most games rest way. Don’t give up after one week on him.
KEY INJURIES TO SOME REALLY ELITE PLAYERS IN WEEK 1:
1). SAINTS WR M. THOMAS
2). NINERS TE G. KITTLE
3). COLTS RB M. MACK
4). JETS RB L. BELL and WR J. CROWDER (He had half the teams receiving yards in Week 1).
5). TITANS WR A. J. BROWN
6). DETROIT LIONS: CB D. TRUFANT, LG J. DAHL, WR K. GOLLADAY
7). COLTS TE J. DOYLE
8). TAMPA BAY WR C. GODWIN
9). MIAMI WR D. PARKER
10). LA CHARGERS CENTER M. POUNCEY
11). CAROLINA K. SHORT
12). NINERS CB R. SHERMAN
NOTE: It’s almost assured the entire list above won’t be playing in Week 2.
1). KC CHIEFS: Could be forced to start two Rookie Corners.
2). PITT STEELERS: Offensive Line is really banged up and could be down 2 or 3 starters this week.
3). ARIZONA CARDS: Offensive Line is banged up good and could be without 2 starters and playing with a 4th stringer.
4). INDY COLTS: Have only 2 healthy Tight Ends for week 2.
5). DALLAS COWBOYS DEFENSE: Linebacker position is in bad shape and they could be exposed this week in that area.
ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END!
1). NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Have been favored in 64 straight Reg season games and that will end Sunday night on Road in Seattle.
CAN SAINTS DEFENSE CONTINUE AMAZING STREAK?
The Saints Defense has not allowed a 100 yard rusher in 44 straight games. They could be tested by Raiders stud RB Jacobs on Sunday though.
TWO BEST COMPLETION PERCENTAGE QB’S FACE OFF THIS WEEK:
Saints QB Drew Brees and Raiders QB D. Carr were #1 and #2 in Pass Completion % last year and will face off vs. each other in the Raiders brand new Stadium this Sunday.
CHIEFS MAHOMES IS MR. SEPTEMBER
Mahomes is now (8-0) in September games.
WHY THE ELITE TEAMS ARE ALWAYS A GOOD BET:
The Chiefs have now won 10 straight games and are a perfect (7-0) ATS in AFC West play. The Ravens are (10-1) ATS their last 11 games. Great teams can still cover on bad days, meanwhile BAD teams must usually play perfect games to cash tickets.
CAN THE LIONS CONTINUE CASHING TICKETS vs. GREEN BAY?
The Lions have covered 6 straight games vs. it’s Rival Packers team. Last year the Packers won both meetings with last second FG’s, after not leading either game for one second prior to the winning FG’s.
BOUNCE BACK KIDS?
The Vikings are a perfect (5-0) ATS after a Loss and Bucs Tom Brady is (48-13) off a Loss in his career.
CAROLINA’S DEFENSE AFRAID TO HIT THE OPPOSING QB OR WHAT?
Last week Carolina did not even get 1 QB hit on the Raiders QB Carr. They were one of only 3 teams not to record a Sack in week 1. They now add loss of two starters for week 2 as they now look to field a very Rookie heavy Defense.
TEDDY IS A TICKET CASHING MACHINE AS THE DOG
Carolina’s QB Teddy Bridgewater is now (10-0) ATS when his team is an Underdog of 3.5 points or more.
THE JETS TRADED AWAY ONE OF THE BEASTS ON DEFENSE AND PROVED WHY THEY ARE ONE OF THE LEAGUES WORST TEAMS ON & OFF FIELD
Trading away Stud Safety J. Adams was not a shock as bad teams are bad for a reason. But wow what a difference that trade will be for the Seahawks. Adams was all over the field and clearly playing with fire in his belly and finally feeling wanted he can be a really big difference all season.
BE EXTRA CAREFUL OF POSSIBLE LOOK AHEADS:
KC and the Ravens face off against each other next week so a possible little letdown spot could occur as both are over a TD Favorite this week.
TWO TEAMS IN EARLY “MUST WIN” SPOTS?
Well it’s way too early for a “MUST WIN” game for any team, but two teams that could really be in some really bad early season struggles after 3 weeks could be Dallas and Houston, two teams expected to make the Playoffs. Both (0-1) and Dallas now facing Atlanta and then Seattle next week, and Houston at Home as a TD Underdog to Balty and then back on road at Pittsburgh next week. An (0-3) start for either team will really put enormous pressure on either if they somehow can’t secure a Win in these first 3 weeks.
GARY’S FINAL THOUGHTS:
One of the most important gambling Tips is to never solely bet only off how good or bad a team was the prior week. Even more so off a teams new season’s Opening game. This year that’s even more important as this was one wacky off season. Really good teams will bounce back well off a bad game the prior week as the focus will be there at a very high level. Really Bad teams though will be bad more than not (see NY JETS). I would be very worried if I was an Eagles fan as they were given a Murderers Row 5 of first 6 games. The Opener vs. Washington was supposed to be a sure WIN. Now they face an improved Rams team, and SF, Pitt and Baltimore with only Cinci in the early mix. The Cardinals though have a chance to start out (5-0) as they now face Washington, then Detroit, Carolina and the Jets. Getting some strong confidence early will ease pressure on young QB Murray and put them in solid position for a Playoff berth. I feel Arizona’s Defense may be the most Improved Defense in the league in 2020. I was a rare guy they didn’t like Brady last year from mid season on and I took some major heat on some of my radio show guest spots for it….but in end I was dead right. I wouldn’t be shocked if this years Browns of 2019 is the Bucs as Brady once again looked a lot like he did last season. Dallas injuries and a weak secondary may put them in a spot to win high scoring games week after week. I do not like the Vikings Offense at all as they have one legit WR in A. Thielen and a QB who simply can’t beat good teams. Now the Vikings Defense is the worst it’s looked in years. Another team that may need to win shootouts a lot. I have to say watching game tape of Denver’s very maligned Off Line they are really much better than talked about. In fact you may be shocked to learn the Broncos OL has only allowed 5 Sacks since week 13 last year. It’s a shame they were missing stud WR Sutton and 2nd round pick Hamler for the Opener as QB Lock looks really solid to me and should only get better ahead. The Packers opponents better watch out as the Packers selecting a QB in the first round just shook the hornets nest and I predict QB A. Rodgers will have his best season in years.
I am still not sold on the Browns, wasn’t sold on Colts with Rivers at QB, still see the Texans HC O’Brien as a terrible HC, wonder how the Eagles win with no stars at WR (look folks D. Jackson is no longer elite and will surely miss 6 games or more as he’s a fragile as a nice vase. I am very worried about Niners QB J. Garoppolo as his footwork on film is still shaky. Same with Eagles QB C. Wentz. I don’t get it, they both should have that down by now. Game Tape never Lies and they both better fix this ASAP or their clubs will be not having big seasons. Miami keeping young stud QB Tagovailoa on bench could come to screeching halt soon as playing QB Fitzpatrick to me is a total waste. Facing the Bills, Seattle, Niners and Broncos Defenses 4 of the next 5 weeks should put an end to Fitz as the starter. The Jets QB Sam Darnold is really in a bad spot going forward as the Jets Offense has no talent, and they face these tough Defenses: SF, Indy, Denver, improved Arizona’s Defense, Chargers, Bills, Chiefs and Patriots. I’d say this: The NY Jets are now on the clock and Darnold may be playing his last year for the Jets.
I want to say this too I fully expect the Tackling in Week 2 to greatly improve. No Preseason games and I saw so many missed tackles in week 1 as fully expected. I will say Betting is a tough gig and it never helps when Kickers are stinking up the joint badly. Missed FG’s and missed Extra Points can derail your bet by a point or two and so be a little weary of laying too many points early on until these Kickers find some rhythm. Also watch the Injured List of Offensive Linemen closely. Most folks only know the big name Star players who they hear who may be OUT for a game that weekend but folks Offensive Linemen are very hard to come by to begin with and adding guys who couldn’t start to begin with is a recipe for DISASTER. It’s even worse we’ve already seen many teams losing not one, but two OL already. OUCH!
We hopefully can add to our fast start (3-0) in the NFL in week 2, and for a rare second straight week we may not be selecting a Favorite. This really must be the wacky 2020 year we’ve all had to endure. LOL
Have a fantastic weekend and may all your Wagers be WINNING ones. If you need help with your picks give me a call at 1-800-587-BLUE as we have dominated the NFL for the past 7 seasons and with the College Cards so much smaller and weaker right now, the bread and butter picks will likely come from the NFL on Sunday’s each weekend.
God Bless and stay Safe out there.