Let’s first take a look at the Tua Tagliova Sweepstakes for the Number 1 overall pick in the next NFL Draft. We always knew Miami and Cinci were the front runners to get the #1 Pick, we also could see week’s ago the Redskins were stay in that hunt til the final game, but now the Falcons are throwing their hat into the ring too with some abominable Defense and QB Ryan hurt.

The Dolphins have a leg up on the Redskins if they both end with same record due to Skins (17-16) win two weeks ago. So the clear front runner is the Dolphins then? Not so fast. The Bengals are the team I am now picking to grab that Number 1 pick. The best part of this scenario of who gets this Number 1 pick is the Dolphins host the Bengals. The loser holds really a two game edge as the loser grabs the tiebreaker if records at season end is same. The Bengals play the Jets at Home and the Fins on Road. No other real winnable game in the bunch remaining. The past 2 weeks I’ve been quite impressed by the Dolphins, mostly the Defense, but ole wily Vet QB Fitzpatrick will ball out the rest of the way, telling me the Fins beat Cinci and possibly the Jets too. The Dolphins even have the Giants left too, another very winnable game. The Redskins play both the Jets and Giants ahead, but with the way young Haskins is playing, hard to see them even trying to win either. The Falcons will get QB Ryan back, but wow would they love to grab that number 1 pick somehow, knowing this season is wasted, and the windfall that Pick could be traded for. The Falcons all of a sudden need a ton of guys on both sides of the ball. I feel bad for Bengals new HC Zac Taylor as he may well go win less in his first season as the Head Master. I am not sure why the Bengals aren’t trading guys for future picks…including QB Dalton and WR Green, neither who are part of the rebuilding plan. If was to make a bet right now who ends up with the Number 1 pick, it’s easily the Bengals. I do wish it was the Redskins, but they mess everything up and likely snag a second win down road.




1) GREEN BAY PACKERS – The Packers lose their top WR D. Adams and what did they do in his 3 missed starts? How about (3-0) with A. Rodgers (71-104-950- 7 TD’s/1 Int) looked his best in years all the while grabbing no name WR’s in the process. We are at the point now where Rodgers and new HC La Fleur are getting on same page. Watch out opposing Defenses rest of way as this combo could be deadly in second half of season. Plus the Packers know they must stay hot to keep pace with Vikings to grab the Division Title come seasons end.

2). MIAMI DOLPHINS – OK I am sure many of you just fell off your chair. But the Fins tanking no longer playing to the part. The past two weeks they lost by 1 point (missed two point conversion of final play cost them WIN #1) and although the scoreboard shows a double digit (10 points) loss to the Bills last week, but in reality it was a very close 3 point loss. On the on side kick in final seconds, the Bills player leaped up and sprung forward at full speed and returned it for a TD. That TD was not scored against the Dolphins Defense. In fact, the past two games the Defense of Miami has allowed only 302 and 311 TOTAL Yards. You add in QB Fitzpatrick (34-53-414) can and will sling it and make some big plays passing it, and all of a sudden the Fins are no longer the easy whipping boy they were in first month. I’ll never likely be betting them, but their Stock is on rise and they likely will snare a few covers ahead.



1). ATLANTA FALCONS – Raise your hand if you saw this Falcons season being over before the midway point? Well sadly for Falcons fans, IT’S OVER! The Falcons Defense is now the worst in the NFL, as they have allowed 24, 27, 34, 37 and 53 points their last 5 games. Welcome Seattle, Saints and Carolina next 3 weeks, and things are NOT getting better the next 3 weeks for this injury riddled, worst tackling, no rush whatsoever Defense. The Falcons thought they had shored up a weak Offensive Line. Nope. They knew the Defense wouldn’t be Top 10, but 5 sacks all season so far? OUCH! The Defense is allowing 55% on third downs this season. This is a dumpster fire and no Fire Trucks are coming to their aid.

2). NY GIANTS – Well the Daniel Jones for Rookie of Year came to an abrupt halt after two fun weeks. Since then, the kid has made more turnovers than a Bakery. The OL isn’t helping much, but he is too slow in the pocket, and he’s forcing passes into double coverage like nobodies business. The Defense allowed at least 489 Total yards to Dallas, Tampa Bay and Minnesota and allowed 427 to the Patriots. Yes Barkley is back, which is great news for the Offense. But Jones has thrown 5 interceptions and lost 5 fumbles in the G-Men 3 game losing skid. In the next 5 weeks the Giants are @ Detroit, face now back in groove Dallas, a winnable one vs. Jets, then Bears, Packers and Eagles. It looks like one win if they are even lucky to grab that one. Giants fun ride is over folks.



For the past week, especially all last Sunday night I read only one thing when it came to “WHY ARE BEARS STRUGGLING”. Somehow 90% of all fans and 98% of all Bears fans put 100% of the blame on QB Mitch Trubisky. Some even blamed the loss to Oakland on poor ole Mitch, and he didn’t even play in that game. LOL

But the funny part is, I blame two other Bears factors 100x more than Mitch. First off the Bears HC, Matt Nagy, to me has been atrocious with having his team prepared and even worse with his play calling. He so far has earned a (F) grade from me. He is totally lost, and he clearly is in way over his head with the pieces he does have to work with. The OL sucks, the running game sucks, and other than WR Robinson, this Offense overall, players and HC Play calls are maybe worst in the league as an entire Offensive Unit.

Next we go to the Bears Defense. Somehow not one Bears fan I saw blamed any of the losing on the Defense. Yet this Defense has been brutal the past 3 games. Yes they beat the Redskins, but the Defense got shredded by Skins QB Case Keenum for 332 passing yards, 401 team total by Skins. They allowed over 400 to the Saints, (432 to be exact), and they allowed 2 yards shy of 400 (Oakland got 398) and the Bears supposed vaunted Defense, led by supposed Sacking Machine K. Mack, has had ZERO SACKS the past two weeks.

Yet somehow the only problem most Bears fans will aim is at Mitch Trubisky. Defense has somehow been fine they say, as they all claim this Bears team right now is only a good QB away from a Super Bowl berth. Hate to tell you the real truth Bears fans and Mitch haters, but right now Mitch is problem 5, after HC, OL, Run Game, and Defense.

Hope you all enjoyed my article as I always say “THE TAPE DON’T LIE” and it never will. Always be extra diligent when using STATS as maybe your only method to handicapping a game. STATS LIE, often. I will add Injuries are part of the game, but wow this season has been a truckload and don’t ever believe the most silliest line ever “NEXT MAN UP”, especially when it comes to Offensive Line players. If the backups were any good they’d be rich already playing for someone else.



Every week after all the games are over and most of you are asleep, I am watching game film with two other Football Guru’s and looking much deeper than just the final Box score most of you all just see as the full update on what happened in the games that prior weekend. It’s been a long time since I’ve given a not bottom feeder team an (F-) grade to one side of the ball. I gave this Lions Defense (D-) grades the two games prior to this “burn the tape” debacle vs. the Vikings. This week the Lions traded Safety Diggs and many fans went nutso. “How could they trade him”? If I was GM I’d be looking to deal most of the rest of the Defense to anyone else you could fleece. This Defense is as bad as it gets. It’s most funny that the HC “Clueless Matt Patricia” is also the Def Coordinator. Nobody has done as poor a job calling Defensive plays this year. This guys clearly knows EATING, as he looks like 500 pounds. These past 3 weeks, his now #31 overall Defense in the NFL, behind even Miami, have just allowed wide outs to run totally free, and in the Vikings case last week, free by at least 5 yards separation on all but a handful of plays, with many times the wide out separated by any Defender by a good 10 full yards or more. This D gets almost No pressure, as evidence to just one sack these past 3 games combined. They have allowed a whopping (1,389) Total Yards in these 3 games combined, allowing Runners to shred them well over 5 yards per carry. Now ahead without Diggs, it’s unlikely things get much better, although they catch the Chargers Offense is total disarray too as it’s OL is banged up good and Melvin Gordon just can’t get on track still after his long holdout. But even struggling youngster, NY Giants Rookie QB Jones,  must be watching Lions Defense game films and saying “40 points” this week is on tap. LOL   Look going forward this Defense needs help all over the place. You don’t want to bet teams that can’t even get a sack or slow down a run game. Most teams won’t be great vs. Pass as the rules are set up for the Wide outs to do well. But you can still get pressure on the QB and slow down a rush attack. There is no “D” folks in:  L I O N S!

Have a great weekend and may all your Wagers be WINNING ones!

God Bless,

Gary Greene