GARY’S “GAMEDAY PICKS” RECAP: WEEK 2 CFB/WEEK 1 NFL
PERFECT START IN CFB ENDS IN WEEK 2, BUT A SUPER SWEEP IN NFL WEEK 1 !!!
Well we always enjoy getting out the gate of a new season on a winning note as it seems we had months to prepare for the first week of CFB and NFL. Last week we were able to start the CFB season off with some of the easiest winners we’ve ever had as Army and BYU both won in gigantic blowout fashion enroute to an solid (3-0) start to the 2020 Season. We were happy to get the NFL season started as the CFB slates are nothing like the old days with 40+ games to choose from. Last week was an extra burden as we got 3 dozen new clients off radio show appearances and some older clients who only like to buy 1 week at a time and with the CFB card so small, I could only find 3 games to release. I usually have 5-8 in the bigger CFB slates of past seasons. When you sell a weekend package if you don’t end up giving near ten games the overall Units that can possibly be won shrink if you even lose a few games. We also knew that when the final call was made with the 3 CFB picks all being 3 TD favorites that one even slightly strong showing by one of our picks and a sweep wasn’t happening. For Season clients a (2-1) day is solid as you chip away and grind and try to increase bankroll even by 1 unit per day. Not shockingly one of our 3 big CFB fav’s (Notre Dame) didn’t play a strong overall game and ended a (5-0) after we won our two 9AM starts with North Carolina and Army both sneaking in. North Carolina winning was more a “lucky” winner than a solid one, although we were also picking strongly “AGAINST” a Syracuse team we felt was just in a terrible spot. Army for a second week in a row did dominate for us, but again we easily could’ve been (1-2) in CFB. Great start though now at (5-1) in CFB in a season we still though don’t feel overly comfortable at all so far.
Week 1 in the NFL is now in books and although the results of the 3 picks we released was outstanding, we did get very lucky to win the first pick of the season, the “OVER 53” TOTAL in the Texans/Chiefs Thursday night season opening game. The Texans no showed and really only a miracle decision (for us and really many others in this same game) of Chiefs HC Reid deciding to kick a FG from the 1 yard line with only 30 seconds to play making a Loser turn into a Winner as the last seconds FG changed a likely 31-20 final score into a 34-20 final score. Of course if he doesn’t kick the FG, they likely would’ve ran the ball once more from that 1 yard line, but after being stuffed in backfield on 2nd and 3rd down, it’s likely only 50-50 they score the TD on 4th down to make the game go OVER. Sometimes Lady Luck makes all difference in a winning or losing week or a good week or a great week. Thankfully the two games I liked a ton on Sunday both won relatively easily as the Cardinals (+7 1/2) won straight up and my Total play I felt was the likely highest scoring week 1 game (Las Vegas/Carolina) “OVER 48” went exactly according to my expectations with both Offenses dominating weaker Defenses with a final score of 34-30 and thus the second highest scoring game of week 1 (I will say I surely didn’t see GB/Minny getting 77 to grab week 1 highest scoring game honors.
Overall we are thrilled with the fast start combined with a (8-1) record (all have been regular 1 UNIT plays only) and I think we may get into Totals this weekend in CFB after seeing and feeling out a bunch of teams. Week 2 of the NFL is one of my favorite weeks (even though we’ve had some real Week 2 Clunkers over the years) as this is the week we’ve had a week of people who completely over react to the Week 1 showings. I will be posting a full recap of Week 1 NFL games across board and don’t count out ole Tommy Brady or Carson Wentz just yet. Nor the thought of my Redskins team being the team to beat in the NFC East. Yes some things likely won’t ever change like the Lions HC Matt Patricia simply proving again he is so in over his head it’s not even funny anymore. But the first hard lesson I ever learned in my twenties when I decided to bet Sports for a living (and really the NFL) was NEVER OVER REACT TO WEEK 1 FINAL RESULTS. The teams who played poorly will definitely be “wide awake” this week. Yes some teams like the Jets are just not good teams and they will likely play 2/3rd of their games poorly. Will the Jags QB G. Minshew go (19-20) again? Not likely. Remember folks it’s a marathon and not a sprint betting on Football. I will give you a very important update from Week 1 on KEY INJURIES suffered and trust me many of the names aren’t household ones that will be talked about much. But the most important players on the field are the Offensive and Defensive Linemen. And a few teams got destroyed in that area and so to me those teams regardless of the situation this week (off a bad loss) make them un-bettable as you never really want to bet your hard earned cash on “BANGED UP GOODS”.
FINAL NOTE: This is a business they has been very good to me and allowed me to have summers off and lot’s money to buy whatever I want. But it’s also been one that’s helped me raise money for good Charities and after week 1 (3-0) I had a new client who bets very big send me $500 for a tip for my Charities for his winning day (it was a short week with no NFL). That stuff is very rare but so greatly appreciated. Although I haven’t gotten a second $500 tip for week 2 as it’s not arrived in mail yet, I am so appreciative that our winning weekend helped more than just the long time clients and the 3 dozen who bought this past week on our $99 SPECIAL a solid profit, but a good cause also won in the process. I’d love to win every week but I won’t. For this new week though at least everyone has a little wiggle room to play with and that is always a lot of fun. For every “LUCKY” winner like Chiefs kicking FG that many HC’s wouldn’t have, we will be on other side as well and fall short. Hopefully you all had a good start to your NFL seasons if you bet on your own. I haven’t posted my full NFL report yet as my Pop got a new Pacemaker Tuesday and so I was out of office more than normal this time of year and just late last night finished my watching of all the NFL game tapes and so I will be writing it here and finishing hopefully by lunch tomorrow, if not earlier.
Have a great new week starting tonight with Bengals/Browns battle for Ohio’s bragging rights. Wishing all your wagers to be WINNING ones and remember don’t spend the winnings, put them aside for a bad week that you will have at some point.
****THURSDAY NIGHT NFL UPATE: We will not be in action this week for the Thursday Night NFL or Friday night CFB game. Back Saturday with CF Picks.