GARY GREENE’S FULL NFL RECAP WEEK 8
GARY’S NFL WEEK 7 FULL RECAP/RANTS/DECEIVING NUMBERS
(Note: Always remember STATS often LIE)
EAGLES @ GIANTS
The Eagles pulled out the win but once again QB Carson Wentz struggled for most of game. His Offensive Line is a big problem
and won’t get much better anytime soon due to key injuries. Wentz had another bad INT and was sacked 3x. Two nice drives
by Philly to end the game were just in time to steal the win. Philly had drives late of 4 plays-78 yards and 6 plays-71 yards. Both
were for TD’s. The Giants continue to not finish games. QB Daniel Jones is still a huge work in progress. If you look at the Giants
Team Rush Totals (22 carries/160 yds), they are a bit skewed as Jones had a long run of 80 yards. The Giants had 3 turnovers
and Jones had an INT in that 3 turnover mix. The Defense gave up a whopping 442 total yards. Philly had 27 FD’s to NYG only 17.
BILLS @ JETS
The Bills started slow after their short week facing KC on Monday night and although they didn’t score a TD
(had 6 FG’s) they pulled out a win. The Jets ran only 45 plays the entire game (Bills ran 70). This is almost impossible
to do. The Jets Offense is the worst I’ve seen in years. The Jets scored no points in the second half. They also scored
No points 2 weeks ago and only 7 points in second half 3 weeks ago. Jets QB Darnold passed for only 120 yards
and had 2 Int’s and was sacked 6x. Bills QB Allen passed for 307 yards but it was a so so game (no TD drives). Allen
continues to be one of the best running QB’s in years and his runs saved drives more than once. The Jets Defense
gets very little pressure on opposing QB’s (only 4 QB hits on Allen) and although they did cover the point spread
(Saving the Sportsbooks from an even more disastrous week 7) they were completely outplayed from qtrs 2-4.
DETROIT @ ATLANTA
The Lions pulled out a miracle win (and cover) with a TD on the game’s final play. The Falcons continue to find a way
to lose games as QB Ryan led a late drive of 9 plays and 76 yards for a TD to take what looked like a win. But a bonehead
play by RB Gurley scoring rather than stop and kneel at one and run clock down to a few seconds and kick ez FG to win,
his scoring by accident gave the Lions 1:04 to get a TD to win. The Lions amazingly went 8 plays and 75 yards in the short
1:04 time span to get the winning TD. Both QB’s passed for 340 yards but neither team could run the ball at all. Neither
QB got picked off and both Off Lines played pretty well. It’s rare to see any team lose with drives of 14, 13, 13, and 9 plays.
But the Falcons did as they had one 13 play drive end with 0 points. The key to this game I learned (I bet the OVER and
this was my only NFL loss of the week) was new ATL HC Morris called the plays so conservatively for 3 qtrs to ensure
his awful Defense didn’t give up 40 points again. They ran ball on first and second downs over and over..even though
they were gaining small gains only. He’s a joke as he has great weapons of Jones and Ridley and Gage and Hooper to
throw to and he decided not to use them for 3 qtrs until the game got nearing an end. The Lions are so poorly coached
it’s hard to look to “BET ON” them. It’s a good thing the Lions got the win as I am sure HC Patricia was getting fired if
they lost to hapless Atlanta.
GREEN BAY @ HOUSTON
If you look at the final stats: GB 379 yards, HOU 365 yards, and HOU 31-29 mins Time of Poss, GB 22 FD’s to Hou 20, you
would think game was much closer than it really was. This game was a complete Packers thrashing for 3+ qtrs as they
led 21-0 at Half and were up 35-13 late in 4th when they allowed the Texans a garbage TD to make final score 35-20.
The Texans Defense continues to be awful. The have only 1 INT all season. They allow 417 total yards a game. The Offense
has no running game (QB Watson scrambles had 38 rush yards and D Johnson had 42 total rush yards to lead team) and
although QB Watson final stat number are decent to look at (309 pass yards- 2 TD’s – No Int’s) he still has too many
wasted drives and the team missing FG’s and turning it over weekly, all at bad times, and stud DE JJ Watt had no sacks and
no QB hits. The Texans D had 1 QB hit the entire game. Houston’s D is #28 and they have only 1 INT…they never turn the
ball over for the Offense. It’s nearly impossible to do what they have (well haven’t done) done.
CLEVELAND @ CINCI
The Browns did not play great, but they overcame losing star WR Beckam in first qtr, to win a game in final seconds 37-34.
This was the most exciting game of the week 7 card as neither team scored twice in a row. The two teams traded scores
12x and after a fantastic late 10 play drive by Cinci QB Burrow (35-407-3 TD) to take a 34-31 lead but Browns QB Mayfield
(22-28-297-5 TD’s) was the star leading a 5 play-75 yard and throwing a dime to Peoples-Jones in endzone for winning TD.
Mayfield completed his last 21 straight passes. It was the best game I’ve seen him play after starting the game throwing
a pick on the 2nd play of the game. The Browns scored a TD on it’s final 5 drives of the game. Burrow continues to be
fantastic as he is playing with a terrible Off Line. He leads the NFL now with 195 completions and his 2023 pass yards
are third best in NFL. I just hope (Bengals fans pray) he can stay healthy the second half 2020 as he’s been sacked
28x (most in NFL). I love his pocket presence and he gets rid of ball fast (2.63 seconds) and he needs to as he doesn’t
have much time before he’s getting hit. Burrow had 24 passing first downs as the Browns Defense, although 4 more sacks
and 8 QB hits, they just can’t get off field. The Bengals had drives of 11, 12, 12 and 10 plays in their final 4 drives. Let’s face
fact the Browns will be in higher scoring games, as will the Bengals, the rest of the season. Bengals star WR Green finally
looks to be back to his old self (7catches-82 yards) which is great news for Cinci, who simply can’t run the ball so the Pass
game will make or break them most weeks.
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON
How bout them Cowboys? Haha ….well they now hit rock bottom. They got destroyed and now fall into
worst 5 teams in the NFL. QB Dalton was 9-19-75 yards. The Boyz QB’s were sacked 6x. Zeke Elliot again
stunk up the joint (12 rushes – 45 yards). The Cowboys had 142 total yards. Lamb/Gallup had 0 catches.
The Offense went from huge games with Dak Prescott at QB and now it’s dead as can be. The Skins D
is now in top 4 against the Pass as they keep getting constant pressure on opposing QB’s. The bright news
for Redskins fans is RB A. Gibson ran for 128 yards on only 20 carries. I am a Skins fan and this is very
rare sighting to see a RB gain 100+ yards. QB Allen wasn’t asked to carry load and looked fantastic.
The crazy thing for both, even as bad as Dallas has looked thus far (also 0-7 ATS) is both teams still
in contention and likely will be for weeks ahead in a very weak NFC East. I would stay off Dallas
bets for next few weeks at least as this team is much worse than (2-5) record shows. They easily
could be (0-7) and for most part that’s who they are as a team. Brutal bad. Skins have a Bye this week
and Dallas goes to Philly. A win can change things 360 for Dallas with a win. One more blowout
to another East rival and it might be curtains time in the Big D. By way Dallas Defense has 1 INT all
CAROLINA @ SAINTS
This game was really much closer than it really played out in stats. Carolina couldn’t run ball at all (14
carries for only 37 yards) and yet they had a chance to tie it up in final seconds. A crucial mistake by
Panthers QB Bridgewater (got sacked on 3rd down at Saints 39 pushing him back to Saints 47). This made
a FG try of 56 turn into a 65 yard try. The FG looked great but fell a yard short. If no sack the FG is made
easily. But the real story was the Saints dominated. The Panthers Offense had ball only 6x. They hit
a 74 yard TD pass in a 2 play drive in second qtr. and then on next drive went 9 plays for a TD and took
17-14 lead. They allowed a crushing TD to the Saints on final play of first half to head to HT down 21-17.
The Saints dominated the clock the entire second half with two long drives of 13 and 13 plays. The
Saints Offense had 415 total yards and was never really pressured by Panthers D. Brees did fumble
once getting hit blindside and that turnover is what swung game in second qtr to keep the Panthers
in the game and it really stayed close all way thru. Saints RB Kamara is now in his elite groove rushing
and passing and he’s really uncoverable out of the backfield (8 catches – 65 yards). The Saints to me
are now hitting their top level of play and the Offense really looks good top to bottom. Once a healthy
WR M. Thomas returns the Offense will be unstoppable. Carolina held ball only 25 mins so Defense
was on field for 35 mins and now they play the Thursday night game on short rest.
PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE
Well folks this game was not even close to what the final score indicated as the Steelers dominated this game.
They took a 24-7 halftime lead and led in total yards 362-292 and had a 37-23 min time of possession edge.
The Titans were kept in game by 3 Big Ben Interceptions but the Titans could not take advantage of a late Big Ben
INT late in 4th as they went 12 plays in 2 mins to get into FG range, but they missed a 45 yard FG and the Steelers
hung on for 3 point win to stay undefeated. The Titans are 5-1 and a very good team. But it’s clear already they
will somehow end up in a close game for most weeks. They have wins by 2, 3, 1, and 6 points and now a 3 point
loss. The Titans D is #25 allows 130 rush yards a game allowing teams to grind them out for long drives. Their
saving grace is they have 9 INT’s. They allow 402 total yards a game and with their high octane Offense…look
to bet them OVER and never UNDER ahead. The Steelers are perfect and will be tested this week against the
Ravens. They have the #1 Defense and they lead league in Sacks (26) and have 8 INT’s. They allow only 69
rushing yards a game and if they beat Balty this week I say they will be 10-0 when they face the Ravens a second
time in late November. But the Steel boys still don’t win big (only one win by over 10 points) so be wary
laying lumber with them. I love the Steelers wide outs…so much talent…but they do drop ball too much..
I watch their film and I they drop the easy short passes often. They don’t drop the longer passes (over
16 yards) though as they haven’t dropped on all season. I love Steelers new Offensive philosophy as Big Ben
gets passes off fastest in league (2.27 seconds). He was (2.55 seconds in 2018). The Titans play winning
football…they aren’t really even a 5-1 team but they are already +9 in turnovers and in Red Zone they
convert 80% TD rate under QB R. Tannehill this year and were 87% last yr after he took over reins last year
(best in NFL). They are 14-14 in goal to goal situations this year so they don’t leave points off the scoreboard.
I will end saying they are a Dream Teaser pick as they will play most games close.
TAMPA BAY @ VEGAS
Well for a while this was a very competitive and close game but then the wheels fell off for Vegas and Tampa Bay
just rolled them over good. It was my fav game of week as it was my “Best Bet” in the NFL as I had the OVER-52
and the final 45-20 was more than enough points to cash our Best Bet ticket. The Bucs Offense ran perfectly with
454 yards and no turnovers. Brady was fantastic (33-45-369-4 TD’s) including the best throw I’ve seen all season
with just 17 seconds left as he hit Scotty Miller on 33 yard DEAD ON MONEY pass into deep corner of endzone
for a TD that put them up 21-10 at half rather than likely 17-10 with a last second FG heading into Half time.
Vegas got score close at 24-20 but it was it as they went 1 play INT, 4 plays and out on downs, then 6 plays to
end game where they went 6 plays and gained only 22 yards. Tampa Bay scored a TD on it’s final 3 drives
to secure the easy win. These teams are going in opposite directions as Vegas has now lost 3 of it’s last
4 games and the Defense just allows too many points. The D has only 7 sacks and only 3 INT’s. They allow
over 400 yards a game forcing Offense to match point for point every week. Tampa won 5 of it’s last 6 losing
only the heartbreaker 20-19 to Chicago but the Offense is 20-20 in Goal to go situations and Brady is now
finally settled in. They did take a crushing loss of star WR Godwin who is now out with injury. We will see
after this week how good Tampa is as they face some elite teams 3 of the following 4 weeks. But I love
all I see on both sides of ball for the Bucs and if Defense keeps up this pace (25 sacks and 9 INT’s) they
will be going very far into the Playoff season. Vegas can decide it’s own destiny ahead as they face only
one Top-10 team (KC) in the next 6 weeks. They might get young star WR B. Edwards this week and when he
was in first 3 games the Offense really clicked on all cylinders. The Vegas Raiders future though will hinge on it’s
Defense and right now this D makes it tough for me to make bets on them.
SAN FRAN @ NEW ENGLAND
Well folks the Cam Newton lovefest by 98% of sports media is now over. I never liked Cam since his few early
great seasons as he can’t pass. Now in just a matter of a few weeks, he went from some dream grab by Patriots
to a total joke and now on life support to keep playing as the Starter. He threw 3 INT’s vs. SF and he really just
looked like a washed up bum … and really the guy I always thought he was. Let’s face facts folks, Cam the Sham
lost his last 8 games with Carolina and now he’s 2-4 here with Pats. He’s a dreadful 2-12 his last 14 starts.
Fat joke Rex Ryan before the KC game 3 weeks ago praised Cam and said how foolish all the teams that didn’t
sign Cam must be feeling. Hey you fat joke Ryan…no other team is feeling sad…heck the GM’s who gave him
a thought are so happy they aren’t about to be Fired. The Patriots Offense is #24 and averaging under 200 pass
yards a game…you can’t win anymore with those type pass stats. Cam is a very happy winner, but he’s the worst
loser player I’ve ever seen and it’s rubbing off on the other players. They scored 10, 12 and 6 points the past
3 weeks. It’s hard for me to say but this game Sunday at Buffalo is the biggest game in years for New England
as they are in a “MUST WIN” situation. Another bad loss to the East Leading Bills as a loss will put them 3 1/2
games behind and they won’t ever catch up. For years you could bet the Pats blind and get rich. This ain’t ya
Mamma’s Patriots team. Heck they are closer to Jets than the upper echelon teams now. Cam has 10 INT’s
(worst in NFL) and he’s been sacked 13x. I watch the film and I can’t get over how slow he is in reading
the pass rush this year (was same last year when he did play) as he waits til last second to try to move
and he simply isn’t getting away with his legs anymore. Now you add this insane stat: He’s thrown the ball
to the right side of the field 2x the last 2 ENTIRE games. Are you F’n kidding me? Is Josh McDaniels still the
play caller for the Pats? The opposing Defenses don’t even need to cover half the f’n field. I will add more
bad news for Pats and Cam the Sham this week as the Off Line is in shambles due to injuries and I watched
LG Thuney (their best lineman by far) and OT Herron limp off field last week and will likely be game time calls.
San Fran totally dominated wire to wire with 467-241 edge total yards. They held ball for 38 minutes so
another bad sign for Pats facing Bills (who will be looking to avenge 8 straight losses to Pats) is that the Pats
Defense was on field all day long. They have been now for 3 straight weeks. The downside to the Niners win
is one where I always say “STATS LIE”. Yes the Niners won big. But QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw 2 INT’s as he
continues to make too many mental mistakes throwing into tight coverage. Lucky for Niners fans the Defense,
even without a ton of studs out for year or for long stretch thus far, they are #5 overall and #3 vs. Pass. I am not
sold on the Niners at all though and we shall see how they handle @ Seattle, GB, @ Saints, @ Rams and Bills
the next 5 weeks. They are 3-0 on road but it’s a tough go to stay that good on Road in this league. I’ll pass
on betting either these teams in the upcoming weeks ahead.
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER
Each and every week my first look is to see if KC is a bet ON for me. I’ve won big my whole career with the K.I.S.S.
strategy of bet ON the best teams and AGAINST the bad teams. The elite teams often still win (and get you
a Cover for your bet) even on a bad day. Bad teams need to play near perfect football to get you a cover. KC
is simply loaded on Offense and with QB Mahomes with only 1 INT all year…they aren’t gifting their opponents.
This game was a prime example of my strategy of elite teams can still cover on a bad performance. Mahomes
was only 15-23-200-1 TD and they ran it only for 101 total yards. Denver ran 73 total plays to KC’s 47. Yet KC
won 43-16. Denver isn’t a terrible team but they are a work in progress, especially on Offense. They make lots
of big plays but they turned it over 4x and the Chiefs got an INT for a TD and a 102 yard Kick off return to
just take the game over and crush Denver’s spirit. Denver is now a shocking 0-3 at Home and just 2-4 but they
still have the door open a tiny bit with winnable games the next 4 weeks. If you bet Denver you will pull your
hair out most of the game. But remember this is a young team, they’ve used 3 QB’s due to injuries and have 10
INT’s and first round pick WR Jerry Jeudy has only 19 catches all season/only 1 TD. KC added stud RB L. Bell
and now simply have too many weapons to stop. This was really a terrible Offensive performance and you
can be assured that’s not repeating again this week vs. hapless Jets.
JAX JAGUARS @ L A CHARGERS
This game now sealed me to feel the Bolts are set now at QB with J. Herbert for a decade. He was
magnificent in his best game yet (27-43-347-3 TD’s) and was sacked only 1x. Jax D just puts very
little pressure on opposing Offenses and although it kinda looks as if they aren’t terrible by
some of their scores, they are TERRIBLE. This Jags team to me is 2nd worst team in NFL. They
are possibly worst coached team in years….never come into a game prepared….this game
again perfect example of it as they go 3 and out on first 3 drives gaining 2, -2, and 3 yards total
in each drive to start a f’n game? You practice all week the first 20 plays. They clearly didn’t. I say
often STATS LIE….well final score LIE LIKE HELL a heckuva lot. The Jags lost 39-29 which has a feel
the team played pretty well but they came up short. They got a blocked punt TD on 4th play of
second half to actually take the lead but the Bolts caught fire on Offense with 3 straight TD drives
and a Final drive FG to score 24 points in final and the final 17 points went unanswered. The Jags
have one win. They lost now 6 straight. The Defense (3rd worst in stats) to me is the worst one by
far in the NFL (now allowed 6 straight teams to score at least 30 points) and it’s not getting better
anytime soon. Jags QN Minshew at times looks decent (but then so does Never Won Kirk Cousins at
times). The Off Line is really bad and so little time means turnovers by Minshew. Wins won’t come
much rest of way and if they lose to Texans this Sunday…I fully expect they win just one game all
season. Not a team I’d look to bet ON ever ahead. The book should be closed on them for rest of
2020 season. The Bolts are exactly who I thought they were and will be a sneaky team rest of way.
Herbert will have some ups and downs like all Rookies do. But one thing you can be assured is
that in life 3 things will always happen…we all will die….we all have to pay taxed and third is
the Chargers will play a close game, regardless of a good or bad opponent. If they don’t kick the
late FG in last week win vs. Jags to get win to 10 points, they would’ve had every game this season
decided by a TD or less. Last year was exactly same type outcome. Chargers are a Teaser nightmare
for the Sports Books. They have 4 very winnable games next 4 weeks. The next 3 I’d bet are all close.
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA
The wildest game of the week 7 card was this game where somehow the Cards pulled a miracle comeback
ending Seattle’s unbeaten run to start the season. The stat boards got lit up as Sea QB Wilson (33-50-388)
and 3 TD’s but the storyline here was his 3 very costly Interceptions, including one in OT to give ball
back to Arizona with just enough time to kick a FG to win the game. AZ B Murray had his best game as
a Pro going 34-48-360-3 TD’s (did have 1 INT)….but he continues to mess with Defenses running ball
on scripted play calls but also on scrambles avoiding bad sacks. He’s now only been sacked 9x and the Offense
is averaging 420 total yards a game. The Az Defense has been good….not great…not bad…but they have
played one of the easiest schedules in the league so hard to get a proper full read still on them. Seattle
is one of the strangest teams I’ve seen/watched in my career. They are first in Offense rankings and dead last
in Defensive rankings. They allow 369 passing yards a game and that will never be a recipe for long term
success. This will continue to be in more very high scoring games as “it is what it is” and nothing much will
change on either side of ball for the Hawks. I do love the trade of Carlos Dunlap from Cinci this week as
he will be a nice lift to a D that doesn’t get much pressure on opposing QB’s. I will note to be careful of
Seattle this week as the entire RB stable is banged up. Not one practiced this week as of Friday.
LA RAMS @ CHICAGO
This was my final pick of the 5 NFL picks I had last week and I had the UNDER 45. Final tally of 34 points
was actually higher than it really played out. I’ve been saying for weeks that Chicago wasn’t the winning
team their record was showing. I am so sick of hearing how good Nick Foles is. He F’N STINKS. The HC stinks
too. This Bears team has no talent at WR and the run game is dead last in NFL. The Bears Pass rush D due
to having K. Mack is so f’n over rated too. I laugh how they act like QB Mitch Trubisky was reason for any losses.
He’s 10x better than Foles. This Bears team isn’t going anywhere but home for the Playoffs. Foles has led the
team to 11, 20, 23 and 3 points (the other 7 Bears scored vs. Rams were on a Def TD). This team is a garbage
truck and will have a rough second half. The Rams on other hand are starting to finally peak. At Home the
Defense has been off charts allowing only 3 points (ok 7 vs. Bears but Def scored 7), 9 and 17 points. They
also held Dallas QB Prescott to only 266 pass yards…his worst game passing all season. They have 24 sacks
and just put more pressure on opposing QB’s then any other Defense in the NFL outside maybe Pittsburgh.
The next month the Rams play what I gauge as toughest schedule following this week’s game @ Miami. This
is a Trap game for the Rams as they once again go cross country to play in an early EST time start. This is their
4th trip cross country and they won 2 of the first 3. They lost a shootout in Buffalo on a last minute score by
Bills (35-32). The Rams are a Top 10 Offense and Defense and so they will be in every game and likely favored
in most of them. I am still not sold on Rams QB Goff as he’s a good starter who just needs to not lose games
on his own. I love the wide outs for the Rams so Goff is working with a talented crew. I fully expect the Rams
to stay in hunt in NFC West til the final week. I’ll even call for them right now (barring injuries to stars) to win
West. They must first avoid this trap game in Miami with the Fins starting Tua for first time ever.
Well it was another great week in the NFL with our picks as we finished (4-1) winning also our one “Best Bet”
on Tampa Bay/Vegas- “OVER 52”. We are now a sensational (21-10) in the NFL and we are a perfect (4-0)
with our 2 Unit “Best Bets” this season overall. Don’t miss all Gary’s plays this week and his 5th 2 Unit
“Best Bet” of the season on Sunday. We are now hitting 65% of all our plays in both CFB and NFL and this
is the time of year we now have a full grasp of all the teams and usually kick it into another gear the second
half of the season.
Hope you all had a great week last week with your own wagers and if you aren’t winning so far give us a try.
I love this entire card and we may have 7 College Football Plays overall on Saturday. One of the CFB
plays is a 2 UNIT “BEST BET” up now and ready to be bet, as is a rare (for us) Thursday night NFL play
as well. Jump on board and win big with Gary Greene Sports!
God Bless and stay Safe out there and may all your wagers be WINNING ones!