NFL WK 9 MONDAY NIGHT PREVIEW: COWBOYS @ GIANTS

THE UP AND DOWN BUT RESTED COWBOYS TAKE ON STRUGGLING GIANTS ON MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL!

VEGAS ODDS:  DALLAS COWBOYS (-6 1/2) @ NY GIANTS   ~   TOTAL: (48 1/2)

Well for years as soon as you finally say “This Cowboys team is legit”, they quickly go out and lose a few straight and look as bad as anyone. Only thing we hear more than “IMPEACHMENT” is whether or not “Is Dak Prescott worth a big contract”. After week 1 win over tonight’s opponent, the NY Giants, where he passed for 405 yards and threw for 4 TD’s, it looked like answer was “YES”! Prescott started “red hot” first 3 weeks, then went cold the next 3 (all losses), before another solid game two weeks ago (had “BYE” last week). Like I say often about Kirk Cousins, he’s great vs. bad teams, but once facing a good Defense or a winning team, he sucks. Prescott has had a very easy ride in these first 7 games. He’s faced only one Defense at that time of the actual game that was ranked Top 10, with 5 in bottom 20, and 3 in bottom 5. 

The NY Giants are now in a full rebuilding season with new young QB Daniel Jones, who has looked good at times, but really bad, and so like a young Rookie with no experience. But if you are a Giants fan, these “growing pains” are well worth it, as if you thought this years team was going to Playoffs, you have no clue on reality. Jones now has 7 interceptions and 6 lost fumbles. No good team could withstand that and still be a winning team. It’s worse of late (4 games Giants losing skid), as the Giants have been outscored (38-0) in first quarter in those past 4 losses combined, trailing last 2 games by (14-0) before quarter two started. They have allowed a lateral to turn into a TD, an Interception returned for a TD and a punt blocked for a TD. They’ve put a ton of extra pressure on this young rookie QB and it’s showed big time the past month. He can nil afford any turnovers tonight if the Giants try to pull off two things: (1) huge Upset over team that has owned them for good while now, (2) to keep the entire week 9 of every Home team covering the point spread (12-0 yesterday).

Dallas is clearly the better team. They have the #1 Offense (146 rush/292 pass) in the NFL, and the #8 Defense (97 rush allowed/228 pass allowed). The Giants must somehow play a perfect game as they come in with the #24 Offense (102 rush/231 pass) and the third worst Defense #28 (allow 122 rush/264 pass). On top of being widely separated on both sides of the ball, they now face a Dak Prescott who is (68-101-1053-9 TD’s and no Int’s) red hot again. He carved up the Giants on Opening Day and hard to think he won’t again tonight vs. a Giants D that has allowed 28 points or more in 7 of it’s 8 games, with only one under that vs. Redskins anemic Offense. Dallas has scored at least 30 points in all 4 of it’s wins, so for the Giants to win tonight they may need to score over 30.  Strangely all 4 of the Giants Home games have all gone “UNDER” the Total. 

Last week the Cowboys were off for their “BYE” week. The Giants come off a 31-26 loss to Lions. The Cowboys Defense for most part has played very well, including just destroying the Eagles Offense in their big win before the “Bye” break.

The big talk is and will be for years to come in this matchup, the two young stud RB’s for both teams, Z. Elliot and S. Barkley. The funny part is these 2 faced off 3x so far, and in no game was either of the two the shining team star. In Week 1 contest, Barkley had 139 total yards on 15 touches, and Elliot had 163 total yards on 14 touches. For the Giants to win straight up tonight, Barkley must gain over 130 yards and I feel run it at least 27x. He is facing Cowboys D allowing just under 100 yards rushing per game (97). The Giants ask too much from Jones, and need to pound the rock and give Barkley a chance to break a few plays. He usually does once a game, and tonight he needs 3 explosive plays. The Giants don’t run enough “screen passes” to Barkley, partly because they have a terrible Head Coach. Even with bad teams, they win at home. The Giants though are (2-9-1) ATS at Home under HC Shurmer. 

KEY ADDITTIONS/HUGE LOSSES:

The Cowboys added a solid Defensive player trading for DE Michael Bennett (from Pats), but they will lose maybe their most important player on Defense, LB L. Vander Esch. The Giants Defense should get a bit better with nice addition of DE Leonard Williams (from Jets). 

BIG BETTING TREND:

Dallas has simply OWNED the NFC East going (13-2) Straight Up and ATS as well past 5 seasons. They are a perfect (5-0) ATS last 5 games playing on Road against the Giants. 

ATS TRENDS THIS SEASON:

Dallas is (1-2) ATS on Road this season and 2 “OVERS” and 1 “UNDER”.  The Giants are (0-2) ATS as a Home Dog, (1-3) ATS and all 4 at Home went “UNDER” the Total.

“SO YOU ARE SAYING I HAVE A CHANCE”?

Positive thoughts for any possible Giants backers tonight, QB D. Jones had a solid game passing ball (28-41-322-4 TD’s) last week vs. Lions. But I sadly must add in the “key” fact of: vs. Lions Horrific Defense! Also good news for a Giants backer tonight, they lost their last two both by less than a TD (basically tonight’s line).  Again not to be a meanie, but only one of the Cowboys last 5 wins over the Giants came by less than a TD. 

FINAL KICK:

This is a prime time TV game, which just adds more pressure for the young Giants QB Jones. He started strong, looked like “steal of draft” and he has been just terrible under pressure and way too loose with the ball, fumbling at a way too high rate for a QB for a half season, let alone a few games. The Giants Defense is brutally bad. I’ve said here for weeks the Lions Defense is really bad and how the Hell did their Players question trading away a supposed top player on it’s Defense? He sucked and so did the Defense and the Giants Defense is really bad. Facing Prescott, who all of sudden is protecting the ball like he’s hold a baby, is going to be a nearly impossible task tonight. So it’s up to Jones to not turn ball over, for Barkley to have a “huge” game rushing it and catching it. And most important the Giants must play well  in the first quarter. No way they come back down 14-0 after one quarter to a rested Dallas team that knows they can’t afford a “mulligan” loss here as they already have 3 losses. They can’t overlook this Giants team. The pressure is on the Giants to keep the entire week of Home teams covering the spread. But will be #13 lucky or unlucky? We shall find out tonight. Enjoy the game. 

We had a great week hitting all 3 “BEST BETS” with all 3 winning easily (INDIANA, SMU-MEMPHIS “OVER, DETROIT-OAKLAND “OVER”) and (5-2) in CFB and (2-1) in NFL for a (7-3) weekend. We lost on the Browns as once again they couldn’t play a good game. That’s it for me and the Browns, just like it should be over for the Browns keeping HC Freddie Kitchens, who is by far more over his head with that big a job. He was a bad hire from Day 1, as you could just look at him at him and how he talked and see he was never going to succeed with the pressure put on there to win right now. I never believed in the Browns making the Playoffs this year, but I truly felt yesterday game vs. a really depleted Broncos team was the game they at least put it all together. Nope. Another dud. I feel bad for Browns fans. They don’t deserve a Owner/GM group so bad for all these years. They need to go offer Urban Meyer, like today, right now, this second.

I am passing tonight but I hope your wagers are all WINNING ones.

God Bless,

Gary Greene