GARY’S WEEK 5 NFL RECAP/RANTS AND WEEK 6 NUGGETS!
GARY’S WEEK 5 NFL RECAP/RANTS AND WEEK 6 NUGGETS!
Ok folks we now have almost 1/3rd of the NFL Season in the books and wow some of the teams who were penned in by many to be a Playoff team in 2020, well they are closer to getting the #1 Draft pick than they are garnering a Playoff berth. We did see that even Goliath (KC) can be knocked off which is to me always a great thing. We have completely destroyed the Sportsbooks with our NFL picks for almost a decade now and with our (3-0) week last week we continue to be as in sync in a particular sport as we could possibly be. Let’s go over a little from last week in where the final scores at times can lie or just be very deceiving and some very interesting match ups this Sunday/Monday that stand out for specific reasons.
Let’s first see a match up not many expected to be where two Playoff teams are basically either dead or on life support. Falcons (0-5) @ Vikings (1-4). I will say injuries have really derailed the Falcons but they still have played poorly and coached even worse. The Vikings simply came in with a terrible secondary and that and of course having a QB who is simply the most over rated of all time and the 1-4 record isn’t that shocking. But a Falcons win here likely ends any Playoff hopes for the Vikings. Next we have Arizona (3-2) at Dallas (2-3). Huge game for both as a win by Zona really would be as good as hoped as they to me have played way under expectations as I feel their HC Kingsbury is just awful and a guy still coaching like he’s in the Big 12. Dallas lost it’s QB Prescott but are very lucky to a have a seasoned Vet in Dalton. Their problem is their HC may be worse than Kingsbury and still coaches like it’s 1995. Dallas is in much better shape as they play in NFC East and can actually come away with only 7 wins and may still win the East.
Cinci @ Pitt means our first rematch since the terrible Helmet swing to Pitt QB Mason Rudolph by Browns star DE Garrett. These teams have always had bad blood and the Browns (4-1) are off to their best start in a decade. It will be interesting to see if Browns star WR Beckham plays as he is missing practice for feeling sick (Covid?) and QB Mayfield chest concerns. This game is as big for the Browns as they’ve had in years and they need both healthy. Next you have the two teams who were both (4-0) and rolling before losing last week, the Bills and Chiefs. Worse for the Bills is the game was Tues night. The Bills seem to be the one in some trouble due to serious injury concerns. The Chiefs simply played a really bad half and will rebound with no long term effects.
Detroit is at Jax in a game I wouldn’t bet with your money with a FG added to either side. I was quick to state weeks ago I felt Jax was a fraud and one of 5 worst teams. But these are two Joke Head Coaches who neither is long for this job. It’s hard to win at betting if you bet on terrible Head Coaches who are basically clueless. Jax has gotten amazing mileage from QB Minshew but the talent on this team overall may be worse than Washington’s overall roster. Eeeeek.
Last is our marquee game of GB at TB, with the two storied QB’s duking it out in what should be a very competitive game. I am not really sold on the HC at Tampa nor am I on Brady. I ripped Brady all last year as I felt he was a shell of his star self throwing ball. At times he looks great, at times he looks terrible and lost. That actually sums up 80% of the QB’s in the NFL. Another GB win though on Road with some very key star pieces out will simply tell is they are the Best team in the NFC and barring injuries they will be tough to stop from going to Super Bowl. To me this is a must win game for TB as they need that “is Brady still elite” to be stopped and get some nice momentum going by beating a very strong Packers team and a Rodgers who is as perfect so far as anyone could ever be at QB. Last the Skins and the Giants. The Skins with one win already may have already dropped out of the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes as the Jets look highly unlikely to win even one game. The Giants are still winless but would need to lose to the Skins twice to keep pace with the Jets. This was the year the Skins needed to get the #1 pick. So even as bad as they are…beating the Eagles in week 1, a game that will not help them in any way, will possibly come back to haunt them down road if they lose twice to the Giants, who actually played well vs. the Rams and Dallas the past two weeks. My hats off to Skins QB Alex Smith for making a comeback. But the Skins Offense right now is simply atrocious and this is my team, and a team you NEVER EVER want to look to “BET ON”. It’s almost like they are a low level MAC CFB team on Offense. I will also add HC Ron Rivera is one of most over rated HC’s too…he’s in way over his head and the team is years from contending.
Let’s look at last week and some deceiving notes I made. Yes the Cards beat the hapless Jets 30-10. They finally called a few pass plays over 5 yards. But their running game is awful. Their man RB Drake has been just awful. He’s avg (3.7 ypr) and he looks slow and this team has no chance of a winning overall record if he doesn’t get better. Hopkins bailed out QB Murray on bad passes a few times, so Murray to me still has a lot to prove. If the Cards Offense doesn’t score 30 vs. Dallas horrific D then I am writing this team off. Six games is enough to fully get a read on every team going forward. Plus loss of it’s best Pass Rusher Chandler Jones will effect the D immediately.
Next the Houston Texans got a win. They were one of my 3 picks. I was betting against the Jags as much as I was betting on the Texans. Watson had some big pass yards, but he threw two awful Int’s. The run Game with trade add RB Johnson looked it’s best so far but they still don’t run it enough. JJ Watt continues to me to be just awful. Two tackles, no sacks but worse not even 1 QB hit. Ouch! The Jags were without 3 star Def players so the Texans Offense isn’t to me somehow “back on track” yet.
The Browns won as one of my 3 NFL picks and the score wasn’t really as close as the final. The Colts played without 2 stars on D and it showed. QB Rivers was once again flat (2 int’s and no TD’s) and just throwing ball into tight coverage often. I am not sold on Rivers at all. It’s worse the Browns secondary is brutal. Out of place often, missed reads and coverages all game and yet Rivers couldn’t take advantage for even 1 lousy TD? Add in this…Colts #1 WR, T.Y. Hilton is no longer elite. Not close. Another non 100 yard pass game (this is now nearing 20 games straight and no TD’s AGAIN). The Colts are gonna be a headache for bettors all season…one week looking like a super team (mostly thanks to the Defense when fully healthy) and next week laying an egg. I don’t feel the Browns have played great ball yet but they do have a new swagger and there’s not been any finger pointing or crying for the ball yet. May not seem like much…but I watch these things closely in every rewatch of game tapes each week. As I watch closely how did both Off Lines do, and how often are Defenses completely out of coverage, I watch team chemistry thru the games. Last year the Browns had blow up’s during games almost every game. None yet this season. New culture….new positive chemistry. Oh and you know what smart HC’s do? They get the possible trouble players the ball early. The Browns are doing that with Beckham. They didn’t often last year. Mayfield though still very up and down….two bad INT’s kept the Colts in for really entire game they shouldn’t have been. He must improve greatly but I’d look to play ON the Browns vs. the weaker Defenses as if you don’t pressure him…he’s superior…we will learn all about his progress Sunday vs. a very loaded Steelers Defense. I don’t think the Browns need to win this week but he needs to play very well and avoid costly Turnovers. As for the Steelers, adding a third receiving weapon of young WR Claypool to me has squelched any thoughts of the Steelers Offense attack I did have prior to last week. If Big Ben stay’s healthy, they are the best threat to KC I see ahead. Doesn’t hurt the Steelers are one of 3 or 4 Best Coached teams. I will say right now the Browns are now in the convo of very good coached teams, a place they were near bottom at the past decade.
My “What the Hell is going on out there” team of week is the Niners. Look this team has gotten steam rolled by the Injury Train, but the Offense right now is brutal. QB play is atrocious, run game isn’t even close to even decent right now. But let’s look at this one key player’s season so far and you can quickly see this train may never get back on the tracks this season. Star TE George Kittle this year has 1 TD catch. He has one catch over 18 yards. He’s played in 3 of the teams 5 games, all losses. The team actually won the two weeks he missed. He’s never had a two TD game. Two games so far he’s caught 4 balls for 44 yards. This team can not make the Playoffs without him becoming SUPER ELITE week in and week out. He’s a stud but this Offense right now is off tracks fully and this is not a team I could even think to bet ON. I’ve seen this many years now, a supposed top team you just think each new week is the “break out week”. But it only happens a few times and you end up losing half your bankroll feeling “this is the week”. Miami passed it all day with ease vs. the Niners secondary. Miami is another team that will likely drive bettors nuts all year. QB Fitz at times looks like he’s KC’s Mahomes. But it seems every other week he looks like JaMarcus Russell. Don’t miss the fact Miami only rushed for (2.8) yards per carry last week vs. SF on 33 carries, this after only (3.8) yards per carry vs. Jax on 36 carries and then only (3.2) yards per carry vs. Patriots. See the trend here…Up and Down one week to next. You will rarely see any Playoff team that can’t rush the ball for over 4 yards per carry. Miami does have nice shot though this week to carry over the hapless Jets. In no way though would I lay double digits with this Dolphins team, even to the awful Jets. Look here’s the facts folks, Miami hasn’t won many games at Home at all the past 3 seasons but they won all of NONE by Double digits. Their biggest win at Home was over the Jets, by 8 points.
Next let’s talk about the Bengals. I in no way will say anything bad as this is a huge rebuild, team with very limited talent, and a new young QB and second year HC. My worry here going forward is star WR A J Green. He’s got zero TD’s, had 0 catches last week on only one target. His game catches read: 0, 1, 5, 3, 5 catches. This is supposedly one of the few higher talents on the team and he’s non existent. The top RB Mixon is already banged up. I like Burrow so far….he’s shown me a lot. As for the Ravens, they continue to destroy Bad teams. My laugh after the weekend was hearing the Ravens Def Co. be pissed as Hell the Bengals kicked a FG with less than a minute left to avoid the shutout. HAHAHAHAHA… every F’n team in NFL does this if it can stop a DONUT. But the thing I will keep in my memory is he said “oh just wait til we play them again”……it’s strange to have Revenge against the team you just wire to wire DESTROYED. As for these same Ravens, they are who I thought they’d be to this point of the season. This week @ Eagles is a game they MUST WIN. I say this because I’ve only learned one thing about the Ravens so far. They destroy bad teams and somehow come up way short vs. elite opponents. After this week it’s Pitt twice, @Patriots, @Colts, and Titans. You really only learn about teams how good they are when they face off vs. other good teams. Always remember STATS LIE and often are Misleading. You only need to look at Vikings QB Kirk “Never wins but makes 100’s Millions anyway” Cousins. Lots of late game padded stats and good stats vs. bad teams. The key to being a winning bettor is looking deeper into all stats and how did that come?
Look folks the NFL is not an even league. Twelve teams after Week 5 have only one win or less. TWELVE F’N TEAMS. It’s all either top heavy with elite type teams or a dozen or so fighting it out for the first pick in the next Draft. I prefer betting two good teams facing each other or betting Totals. Of course the theory of betting against the Bad teams has always padded your bankroll. But any of you going to honestly say you Knew before week 1 games the Vikings, Falcons, Eagles, and Houston would be terrible thus far?
TRENDING ATS TEAMS AND OVER/UNDER ONE SIDED TRENDS SO FAR:
Only the Packers are still perfect (4-0) ATS. Every team but the Jets (0-5) ATS has covered at least once. Really most of the better Offensive teams are playing “OVERS” so far and I likely expect will continue to do so. Vegas Raiders played all 5 Over as have the Bills and Saints. Any surprise there? Shouldn’t be. Dallas, Cleve, Seattle, Houston, have all played 4 of their 5 games OVER. The one shocker is the Chiefs (truly helping the Books) only going OVER two of their 5. Here’s a non shocker. This supposedly (hahaha) Cardinals Offense that is supposed by run by a genius play caller, still not one OVER yet. The reason here isn’t a head scratcher at all if you follow every team with a fine tooth comb like I do. If you dink and dunk 9 of 10 passes and you often throw a slant pass of 3 yards when it’s 3rd and FIVE, you will be punting often even when the catch is made. The Cards Defense is average at best and in no way responsible for the reason the Cards are playing all UNDERS. It’s the play calling by Cards HC/Playcaller Kingsbury. It’s been worse then almost every other Playcaller in the league and if it weren’t for stud trade add WR D. Hopkins this Offense would be one of worst in the league.
MY FINAL THOUGHTS:
At this point there really is nowhere to go but up for the Jets, Skins, Falcons and Giants. Problem is sadly they all may never go up much as they all are truly awful teams. I can’t place the Jags in this group because QB Minshew continues to be really, really good and without much talent to work with. He single handedly keeps the Jags (a team very void of elite talent) in games. I worry a bit about the Bengals QB Burrow who will likely lose his next 4 games and could take a beating in a few of them, just like last week to Ravens. I’d never bet the Redskins or Jets ahead…the Giants I have to say have impressed me a bit the past two weeks. No quit in them even missing some huge pieces. I just hate that QB Jones turns ball over too much and so often for Defensive TD’s. At least you know exactly what you are getting as you pretty much get the same QB week after week. We shall see here this next month or so if the Cards are real or frauds. I think frauds at this point as I’ve seen such terrible play calling without much change that how can anyone sane feel this Offense can compete with Seattle (play twice in next 5 weeks)? The Eagles sit at a terrible (1-3-1) but boy can they decide their own fate playing in awful NFC East. They catch the Giants twice and Dallas once in next 4 weeks. Of all the teams with one win right now, I’d say the Eagles are easily best one win team and I will add the Eagles Def front 4 is the most under rated in the NFL and will keep them in most games and should overwhelm the weak Giants and Cowboys O-Lines. Covid has really made for some sleep less nights for me….and sadly at the time of this writing I don’t have one NFL selection made yet. Not one. I usually red pen and yellow fluorescent marker at least win NFL Game as soon as new lines come out Sunday night. I’ve already had two of my College Picks cancelled out due to Covid so at this point I highly doubt we shall get a shot at 10-0 perfection this weekend.
Always remember folks NEVER FORCE A BET, NEVER BET WHAT YOU CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE AND STAY IN A PROPER BANKROLL BETTING SAME AMOUNT OR CLOSE TO IT ON ALMOST ALL YOUR BETS. And always ensure to live and bet another week. You don’t always have to bet a lot of games to Learn about teams more you will be either betting ON or AGAINST in weeks ahead. We are having a fantastic season so far, but in no way would I just throw some bets/picks out there just cuz we are a up almost 20 games already. Lady Luck will always rear her ugly head at some point so no need to force bets if you don’t truly love the bet you are making. I know for millions of you if you don’t bet on a TV game it’s hard to watch it. But that’s only way you will ever have a winning year/season. Those who bet every TV game to just be “IN ACTION” I sure hope you all have great day jobs to cover the sure losses you will likely incur.
GARY’S NEW NFL BOTTOM 5
5. JAX JAGS
4. ATLANTA FALCONS
3. NY GIANTS
2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS
1. (DEAD LAST) N Y JETS
GARY’S MOST OVER RATED TEAMS
1. ARIZONA CARDINALS (Play Calling is so bad but the names get all the great pub without doing anything great).
2. CHICAGO BEARS (NOT 4-1 TYPE AND NOT EVEN CLOSE)
3. INDY COLTS: It pains me a little to put in Colts as I love the Defense. But I am not buying Rivers or the Offense one bit.
4. SAN FRAN NINERS: All I hear is how great HC Shanny is…this guy is so over rated. If not loaded with supreme talent he loses 3 of every 4 games. Great coaches win without talent.
GARY’S MOST UNDER RATED TEAMS:
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS – By far most under rated…new HC Ruhle maybe best HC job with little talent and now missing best player I’ve seen in many years.
2. TENNY TITANS – yes 4-0 but nobody in Joke Media makes this team a top 5…this is one of the best Coached teams in the NFL and they are by far TOP 5 team and may for the rest of year.
GARY’S RANT OF WEEK
The other night in a MLB Playoff game the 3 Announcers had no clue of the new Pitching rule where all Relievers coming in must face 3 batters. The main Announcer (TBS) after one batter said this next matchup of righty vs. lefty is a tough call on the Manager as should he take this chance on the mismatch not in his favor. Well it wasn’t a tough call as the Manager has to leave that Reliever in for 3 batters, not just one, regardless where the match up on batter #2 was (and 3 for same reason). Yet not one of the two former Players chimed back to the main announcer Brian Anderson making this claim where he clearly didn’t know the new rules. To see Ron Darling and Jeff Francoeur not chime back with “he must face next two hitters” was to me just enough to pull my f’n hair out. This is happening so often along with so many Head Coaches taking too long to call key time outs, going for two when an extra point makes deficit only 11, and so many Refs, especially in CFB, knowing a prior close play should be looked at and allowing the Offense to hurry to call a play…only to get (Luckily) called down that the prior play will be looked at.
GARY’S BONEHEAD COACHING MISTAKE OF LAST WEEK IN CFB
I will first say I had North Carolina so this isn’t sour grapes, it’s calling out terrible Coaching. NC was just moving ball at will on VTech and after going up 21 they allowed VT to do an on side kick and being totally caught off guard. Worse VT Kicker was kicking off thru end zone so no real need up 21 for one to even try a return when that’s often when hard hits create turnovers, but any sane Head Coach knows the opposing Head Coach can see writing on wall they need to try to pull off a miracle to change the game. VT immediately scored again after that making game close. In end NC Offense could never be stopped and so the comeback was averted. But I see this almost every week. I don’t even know why the better teams with Great Offenses even run kick off back. Not many return past 30 yard line anyway and most anymore end up behind the 20 yard line, not well past it. Take ball at 25 rather than turn ball over on a kick off you likely aren’t getting much better than 25 anyway. It’s teams getting crushed and can’t move ball that need to take chances returning kick offs and punts…not teams up 21 and dominating the game. Mack Brown, like so many Head Coaches are always called great…when often your own Mother’s are calling out “watch out for the on sides kick here”. Should never ever happen but somehow does every week. I don’t think the Redskins have run a kick off back past 30 more then once the past 3 years but if ball is kicked just at goal line, they try and return it every f’n time…most times never passing 15 yard line and already forcing a bad Offense to go further to score points.
NFL WEEK 6 TOP TRENDS/NUGGETS FOR THE WEEK:
1). RAMS – All 4 Wins have come against the NFC East.
2). HOUSTON TEXANSA – Opponents overall record is 12-2.
3). CAROLINA PANTHERS QB TEDDY BRIDGEWATER – (30-9) ATS as Starting QB.
4). DETROIT LIONS – (7-1) ATS last 8 years following “BYE” week.
5). TENNY TITANS – 3 of their 4 wins have come against teams only (3-11) and won those 3 by only a combined 6 points.
6). NY GIANTS – (6-26) ATS Last 32 Home games.
7). JAX JAGS – Have allowed 30 points or more in all 4 losses (3 were not great Offense’s – Miami, Cinci and Houston).
8). ROAD FAVS THIS YEAR – Winning at 56% clip so far this year.
9). PITT STEELERS – Opponents they have beaten this year have 0, 1, 1 and 1 Win so far on 2020 season.
10). BALTY RAVENS w/QB LAMAR JACKSON as Starter – (6-0-2) ATS when the Road Fav winning all 8 outright.
11). GREEN BAY PACKERS – 3 of the 4 wins this year over teams with a combined (2-12) record.
God Bless and stay Safe with the Covid and may all your wagers be WINNING ones.