GARY’S TAKE: CFB QB’S TO BET ON AND WHO TO RUN FOR THE HILLS FROM!

IT’S TIME NOW TO START TO ZERO IN MORE ON “BET AGAINST” TEAMS/QB’S THEN EVEN THE “BET ON” ONES!

Handicapping games has so many angles to look at and trying to follow 130 teams could make a person’s head shake off. I’ll try to help you here moreso with teams to look to “BET AGAINST” ahead or at worst just “NEVER BET ON” as there to me is no value usually anyway betting BAD teams, but no with half the CFB Season in the books, there is surely no value, nor any reason whatsoever to “BET ON” a good handful of teams. VALUE when betting on bad teams is rare and usually only comes when they play other bad teams. I watch a lot of tape and it’s easy to watch the Bama’s, Sooners, Buckeyes of the CFB landscape to see and know they all have great QB’s. This first half of the 2019 season though to me has been one of the best I’ve watched and charted in years. Right now any one of 6-7 QB’s could win this years Heisman. Now that we are into full Conference play we will see who can keep riding high and who falls by the wayside.

Let’s look first at some of the most eye popping things I’ve seen so far this year from different QB’s/Offenses around the country. Let’s start with the GOOD (in this case the FANTASTIC):

1). ALABAMA QB TUA TAGOVAILOA – Still hasn’t thrown an Interception this year and he throws into more tight windows than any CFB QB.

2). OKLAHOMA SOONERS OFFENSE:  This team has not dropped one pass all year. NOT ONE. This is almost impossible this deep into a season and just shows how accurate new QB Jalen Hurts has been passing the ball. He clearly is no longer only a running threat and he possesses some of the best WR/TE weapons we’ve seen in CFB all year.

3). OHIO STATE QB JUSTIN FIELDS:  He has already completed 15 passes of over 10+ yards and he has 15 TD passes as well. He is as good a run and pass threat as I’ve watched in the past decade.

Now let’s look at the really bad – or in these 3 QB’s cases, the VERY UNFORTUNATE:

1). TEXAS A+M QB KELLEN MOND:  He has had 15 passes dropped so far, making it look like he’s maybe regressed from last year when he was really, really good. He hasn’t, the pass catchers have.

2). MICHIGAN STATES QB BRIAN LEWERKE: He has had an almost IMPOSSIBLE 23 passes dropped so far this year, hence why the Spartans Offense can’t score high numbers of points. I actually feel he’s gotten better this season from what I’ve viewed, as the luck as all gone against him, but this kid is a winner.

3). IOWA QB NATE STANLEY: He has had 10 passes dropped so far, stalling out a handful of really important drives the Hawkeyes have had this year. I am not a big fan of this teams play calling as they clearly play more “NOT TO LOSE” than they do to play to actually WIN, and to me that hurts Stanley getting into any rhythm. Playing in the Big 10 is tough, as you face a ton of really good Defenses and nobody seems to play more “close games” than HC Ferentz teams do. He has to have ice in his veins as he’s more then happy playing games tight right to that final possession. Last week they could never get that one drive completed without a penalty or dropped pass vs. Michigan. The sledding may be the same this week again against Penn State’s very stingy Defense.

 

GARY’S SNEAKY GOOD QB’S STILL FLYING UNDER RADAR:

1).  WAKE FOREST QB JAMIE NEWMAN:  Has his team undefeated, and to me as good a “deep pass” threat as I’ve watched all year. He’s only thrown 2 picks and to me is capable of beating a very elite program ahead.

2).  ARIZONA QB K. TATE: It never hurts to be the fastest running QB but this year he’s made huge strides to me hitting on (67%) of his passes and avg. (9.1) yards per pass thru the air. Now if he could only stay healthy for all his future games, and the Wildcats would be a hard out in any of them.

3). MINNESOTA GOPHERS QB TANNER MORGAN: He had one of the best stretches in any game I’ve watched this year going 21-22 vs. Purdue hitting every receiver dead on the money. The reason I like this kid even more is he wasn’t even supposed to start. Minnesota is unbeaten yet they are still flying Under the Radar. The Gophers may have found a hidden gem in Morgan.

4). NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS QB SAM HOWELL:  To me this kid has carried a very average at best NC team on his back and at times he looks like Russell Wilson. He has no fear, and he’s got a big arm, capable of getting a TD on any one pass he throws as his deep balls are really nice and so far he hasn’t thrown an Interception on a deep pass yet and he’s actually thrown a deep pass 20% of his overall Passes. HC Mack Brown has found a GEM as this Tar Heels team just seems like they aren’t afraid to lose and they play looser then any other team I’ve watched all year. Coming into this season I saw this NC team as a 3 win team. It’s Howell who has them now going for a Bowl Bid.

5). FLORIDA ATLANTIC QB CHRIS ROBSON:  He now has gotten back into solid form passing for 300+ yards in 3 straight games and now that he will be facing lower tier talent, unlike the heavyweights he had to face to open the season, all thanks to a big payday for Fla Atlantic, I expect him to really kick it up a huge notch the rest of Conference play.

6). COLORADO QB STEVE MONTEZ:  This Colorado team is very average, but Montez to me is really, really solid. I look for how kids do “under pressure” and not really how great they are when no pass rush is coming at them. Montez though is unfazed by heavy pressure, willing to stand in pocket til last second to make a big play, and so far he still hasn’t thrown an Interception under pressure, and he’s been under a lot of it.

7). UAB QB TYLER JOHNSTON: I somehow see to be betting on UAB every other week and part of the reason is I love this QB. I also love the OC play calling. They say “CHICKS LOVE THE LONG BALL”….well in this case Chicks love UAB passing game play calling a ton. Johnston has now thrown a deep pass (20+ yards) on (31%) of his passes and has hit 10 TD’s on those bombs throws. I don’t know why more teams that don’t possess tons of elite talent do use this theory with it’s play calling. UAB can hit you for a score on one play and so many teams in their Conference really have to grind out 10 play type drives to grab a score. Long pass TD’s fire up the team and send the Defense out there fired up after them helping create a positive environment on both sides of the ball.

8). S. MISSISSIPPI QB JACK ABRAHAM:  Another team not afraid to throw deep balls often and the reason here is Abraham is a very accurate passer. He has been fantastic this year hitting on (70%) of his passes thrown deep and is hitting (12 ypp attempt avg.).

9). INDIANA QB MICHAEL PENIX JR.:  This kid has shown flashes of NFL QB stuff and another kid totally unfazed by Pressure. He has thrown zero Int’s this year facing pressure and had a fantastic stretch of completions vs. a very good Ohio State Defense. This Hoosiers team will score lots of points the rest of the season as Penix just keeps learning more and gaining valuable Game Experience. Say a prayer these next few days for my Rutgers boys Defense. Could get even uglier for them the rest of way.

10). BAYLOR QB CHARLIE BREWER: He isn’t the flashiest of QB’s but he simply doesn’t make mistakes. He hasn’t thrown an INT yet, and he can’t afford to. His team may be (5-0), but they are still not elite. If Brewer keeps playing without mistakes, this Baylor team going to pick off a win ahead against somebody really elite.

11). OREGON STATE QB JAKE LUTON: If you just look at the Beavers record, you’d first guess likely team has a bad QB. Totally opposite here as Luton is simply a superstar talent playing on a bad team. He hasn’t thrown an INT yet in 161 pass attempts and he’s averaging (9.8) ypp attempt. And even more, he’s been better than his Oregon cross town rival Justin Hebert, a guy many claim will be a top 5 QB in the next NFL Draft.

12). UNIV OF WASHINGTON QB JACOB EASON: This kid clearly is a top talent, although you better take your Blood Pressure Meds before you bet his Huskies team. He’s thrown 5 Interceptions, but he’s lucky that number isn’t 10. He takes a ton of chances so with him you just take the good with the bad. He’s on a good team contending for the Pac-12 Title, so for them to make it to the Title Game, he’s going to have to be so much better this second half of the season and cut down on so many risky passes.

 

LAST WE HAVE THE DREADED “DO NOT BET ON QB TEAMS”:

LET’S START IN MY HOME STATE OF NEVADA:

1). UNLV QB ARMANI ROGERS:  He is like the Titantic, sinking each new game as no QB has regressed as much as Rogers has the past few years. Looking over his shoulder is not going to help his cause the rest of the way either. UNLV is a NEVER BET team ahead.

2). NEVADA QB CARSON STRONG: To me he simply can’t pass and other teams DC’s are seeing this and so now they can load the box and say “Beat us Strong”, something his arm won’t do much of ahead. I don’t know how you can ever bet on any team other than the Service Academies with a QB who can’t pass the ball well.

 

“HEY KID YOU ARE IN” – THIRD STRINGER WHO LOOKS LIKE 5TH STRINGER PASSING BALL

1). PURDUE QB JACK PLUMMER:  This poor Purdue team lost it’s top QB and Top WR on the same play. Now they are forced to play a 3rd stringer and it’s clear already they have zero confidence in this kid. All pass play calls are short passes and so this Boilers team ahead is pretty much doomed. Any chance Jake Plummer has any eligibility left?

 

LAST BUT NOT LEAST: THE DO “NOT” BET TEAMS AHEAD….NEVER, EVER, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES (ALL HAVE HORRIFIC QB’S):

1). OLD DOMINION

2). UMASS

3). RUTGERS

4). U-CONN

5). CALIFORNIA: DEVON MODSTER (QB) is one of worst QB’s in nation.

6). KENTUCKY QB SAWYER SMITH: Every pass I’ve watched him throw is an INT waiting to happen. It’s too bad as once again Kentucky D is good, but Offense simply stinks.

7). C.MICHIGAN: Thanks to an injury and now a suspension this team is down to it’s 3rd string QB. I can assure you the MAC doesn’t have many above average second stringers so being forced to play this poor kid likely the rest of the way won’t be helpful to winning any games.

 

Have a great weekend ahead and may all your wagers be WINNING ones!

God Bless,

Gary Greene