COLLEGE FOOTBALL NEWS AND NOTES AND THOUGHTS FOR NEW WEEK (10-17/19)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING INFO FOR THE NEW WEEK AHEAD (10-17/19)!

 

KEY “REVENGE” GAME SPOTS FOR THIS WEEK: (All 6 teams I mention are at HOME for this Revenge Spot on Saturday).
(Note: these teams lost last year and will surely remember that loss and all should be focused for this week’s rematch game):

1).  MIAMI HURRICANES:  Lost to Georgia Tech last year (27-21). GT Offense will surely struggle greatly vs. a very solid #18 Miami Defense (allows only 78 rypg).

2). IOWA HAWKEYES:  Lost to Purdue last year (38-36). Purdue did win last week with 3rd string QB, and the #82 Offense and #105 Defense. Purdue only rushes ball for 64 yards per game which will be very tough on the 3rd stringer and the Purdue Pass attack to go on Road and win at Iowa. Iowa’s got real problems though scoring points as the Offense just looks terrible.

3). UTAH UTES:  Lost to Arizona State last year (38-20). Utah comes in with the #10 Defense and the #25 Offense in the nation. Arizona State comes in with the #73 Offense and the #47 Defense. The Sun Devils best hopes of pulling the Upset is if their Run Defense (allowing only 92 rypg) can somehow slow down the Utes Rush Offense (229 rypg) and not have any turnovers. Utah’s Defense has allowed only 5 TD’s inside the Red Zone in 11 trips. Arizona State Offense has only converted 20 Red Zone trips into 9 TD’s.

4). UNIV OF WASHINGTON HUSKIES:  Lost to Oregon last year (30-27). This year shockingly it’s Oregon with the much, much better Defense. The Ducks have mostly been a more Offensive type based team but this year they come in with to me, the most unexpected, a Defense that is nearly impossible to score on. They have allowed only 2 TD’s in the Red Zone (#1 in nation). They fly to ball and gang tackle it seems on every play. They never seem out of place or make a bad mistake in coverage. Washington to me does have the big name QB (Eason), but to me they have been erratic thus far. They have some nice talent, but they seem out of sync half the time. Scoring a TD in only half it’s Red Zone trips so far (11 of 22) has definitely been costly. Also consider this fact, Washington has faced almost all bottom feeders on Defense and only one Defense in top half (Cal at #54) of teams 1-64 overall. Only 11 TD’s in 7 games playing those bad Defenses?? Ouch. Oregon “D” has allowed 6, 3, 6, 7, and 3 points it’s last 5 games. If not for a very lucky long pass on basically final play by Auburn to score a miracle TD, this Ducks team would be undefeated and likely ranked top 4. Oregon also has played 4 of it’s 5 lined games “UNDER” the Total this year.

5). OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS:  Lost to Baylor (35-31) last year. In that loss, Okie State out gained Baylor with 523 total yards and they ran 89-65 in total plays as well. I like both these teams as they both have exciting QB’s who can make a big play at any time. Problem is both also can make a bad play at anytime. These two are hard to handicap. Neither has played a very tough schedule to this point, playing some of the same teams even. On Offense Okie State (#8) has extremely effective balance, 279R, 249P. Baylor Offense (#20) not to shabby either, as they are a more pass type team (276P to 199R). The advantage on Defense goes to Baylor’s (#39) Defense that has only allowed 9 TD’s in 20 Red Zone trips. Oregon State’s Defense at times just looks small and out of place, and they tackle poorly. Hence why they are one of worst Defenses in the nation (#89).

6). LOUISVILLE CARDINALS:  Lost to Clemson (77-16) last year. I don’t expect that the Cards will Upset Clemson this week, but this Cards team is 100x better than last year’s squad. So far to me one of the most disappointing teams in CFB is Clemson. They’ve won due to excessive better talent and a much deep team then anyone they have played so far. The problem is much like last year though, as the Cards Offense now has weapons and speed and can move the ball, make lots of big plays and can score points. Problem is their Defense (#101) has allowed 17 TD’s in the Red Zone in only 22 trips. Now to make it even worse, they are facing the (#12) Clemson Offense one week after the Defense was on the field an insane (102) plays (allowed 668 total yards) vs. Wake Forest. L’ville is on the improve but they don’t have the depth to overcome a Defense on field over 100 plays.

 

OTHER DEFENSES ON FIELD LAST WEEK WAY TOO MANY PLAYS:
1). BAYLOR DEFENSE: (85 PLAYS).

2). SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE: (89 PLAYS).

Shockingly these two teams both won last week.

3). FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE: (91 PLAYS).

 

LAST WEEK’S STATS THAT STOOD OUT:

1). WAKE FOREST: Held a 102-69 play advantage but still lost.

2). RUTGERS:  Offense was held to 75 yards. This program is in serious trouble. Do NOT ever look to be this team. These kids are likely to quit here and just go thru motions til end.

3). UTAH UTES DEFENSE: Held a pretty solid Oregon State Offense to only 217 total yards last week.

4). MARYLAND: got bombed by a hugely undermanned Purdue team losing 40-14. They have possibly the worst CFB Head Coach (Locksley) of all time. The Terps are on of the fastest teams in CFB and he has no clue how to use that speed to his advantage. I’d never bet this guy or any team he is Head Coach of.

5). WEST VIRGINA: I’ve bet against this team the last two weeks and got two easy wins. The Offense simply reminds me of Northwestern. Just completing a simply 7 yard pass is nearly impossible. They have really no weapons and now a QB who is young and simply not good at all. This team is a No way bet “ON” as they are likely to get worse even ahead.

6). NEBRASKA: One of most hyped teams coming in….all due to the name of the HC (Scott Frost). I feel this team is the biggest disappointment in CFB this year. I hate the QB and they are always making worst mistakes, in wrong coverage and just don’t seem to have any killer instincts. They have talent and likely will go pick off a good team ahead, but no way I’d bet this bunch ahead.

7). TEXAS: Offense (310 yards and only 27 points) last week played to me their worst game in 2 seasons. But ahead I will look to bet “ON” them as they could easily sweep their final remaining games. I can’t wait for the Texas-Iowa State game as that game will be really exciting to watch.

 

SOME SHOCKING OFFENSE NUMBERS AND DEFENSIVE TOO – GOOD AND BAD:

GOOD:

1).  MISSOURI DEFENSE:  (#6) in Nation and with the really potent Offense, this team is going to give Georgia and Florida all they can handle ahead.

2). OREGON DEFENSE: (#8) but to me, second best Defense I’ve watched in all 3 phases, second only to Wisconsin, who is simply in uncharted territory now playing on another level.

3). INDIANA DEFENSE: (#13) – Are you kidding me? Hoosiers have a Defense? Numbers show they do. But the downside is they allowed a very bad Michigan State team 31 points and Ohio State to score 51 points. They do play Michigan at Home late in season, one week before they play Ohio State. Now that game will be interesting to watch.

 

BAD:

1). TEXAS DEFENSE: (#112)  – WOW, this is stunning for a Tom Herman team. But injuries have completely ravaged this team, especially in the secondary. They will be forced to win shoot outs the entire rest of the way.

2). FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE: (#118) – This is not stunning as this HC Taggart to me has been just awful since the day he arrived. This team has gotten worse, especially on Defense, where they tackle as poorly as any team in nation, out of position all the time too. I only look to bet “AGAINST” this HC/Team as neither ever seems prepared for a game.

3). UCLA DEFENSE: (#127) – My boys simply have zero talent on the Defensive side. HC Chip Kelly has never really cared much about any of his Defenses, and this may be his worst job ever as they are a joke to the UCLA name/brand.

 

WHAT IS WRONG WITH ARMY?

Last year we saw the rise of Army and I must say it was super exciting to watch. Everyone said this year would be just as good. Last week the Offense again struggled, gaining only 208 total yards. They are now ranked (#117) and the opposing teams now see they can’t pass it at all well (73 pypg) and they are loading the box slowing their once strong run unit. The Defense is still very good (#41), so that will keep them in many a close game ahead. But right now it looks like they will get a blood bath beating by Navy down the road.

 

MY NEW FAVORITE TEAM TO ROOT FOR:

UAB BLAZERS: This is a program shut down a few years ago. Yet all they do is win and play really good, sound football. They have one of the best Defenses in the nation (#7) and some sneaky good Offensive players too. They don’t have great depth, but man this team is well coached in all phases, and rarely out of place on Defense. They make tons of big plays too of over 30 yards so they don’t really need to grind it down field for 10 play type drives like so many weak Offenses have to. Be sure to make sure to watch them face off vs. S. Miss on November 9th, as that game will be a classic for that Conference and possibly for the season regular season Title.

 

O.K. folks hope you enjoyed these insights and stats that stood out to me….and hope they help you in your handicapping ahead.

Have a great rest of week and may all your wagers be WINNING ones!

God Bless,

Gary Greene